Friday, April 29, 2016

An ode to my Late Great Father -And the reason I write this blog....

We lost my father to cancer three years ago, and like many children with a parent who has gone to a greater reward, I can still hear his voice talking to me when I remember him.  He was, (and for me still is) a remarkable man.

He was born during the depression in a mining town in northern Ontario Canada. His mother was a gorgeous woman with a big heart, but not much in the way of an education.  His father was a jack of all trades, an avid angler and a semi-professional baseball player who pitched two no hitters in the old Northern Ontario Semi Professional baseball league.  Although he never found out for sure, my Dad suspected that he might have been what was once called a "love child", the result of a romantic fling after his mother perhaps went to one of my grandfather's games.

Who would think that from such humble beginnings my Dad would go on to work on both Wall and Bay Streets in the 1960s and 70s.

But those beginnings I believe shaped my father's character.  He treated everyone with kindness and respect, no matter whether he was dealing with someone who was unemployed or the CEO of a major corporation.

My father's parents divorced when he was only 6 or 7 years of age, and later his mother remarried.  I said she was a gorgeous woman, and her charms attracted a former officer in the Canadian military, one who was educated and taught my father how to behave in polite society.  My step grandfather was no Saint however, among his vices were drink, women and gambling.  A university education is nice, but it doesn't say anything about a person's moral being.

But my Dad was always grateful to his step father.  He moved the family from that northern mining town to a big city.  My Dad's stepfather was educated and well read with the letters CPA after his name.  It is because of this man that my father grew up to be comfortable in a higher strata of society. Dad was convinced that had the family stayed where they were that he would have ended up working underground.

But my father did not forget his more humble roots.  He always treated everyone, regardless of their income, education or social status, the way he wanted to be treated.  

I won't go into detail about everything he accomplished, but there is one story that I will always remember, it was told to me by my mother sometime after my Dad had retired.  My parents would go down to Florida to escape Canada's winters, and one year they made a stopover in New York, where my father had worked for a Canadian financial institution starting in the sixties.  

While in NY he had managed the bond desk for his employer.  Going back to NYC sometime around 1999 my Dad decided to go visit the building he used to work at in the Wall Street district.  It no longer housed the firm he had worked for, and he noticed that the large brass doors were badly tarnished.

He poked his head in the door and peered around.  A security guard, who looked to be in his seventies according to my Mom said something like:  "Can I help you"?  My father explained that he used to work in that same building many years before and he was just taking a gander.  My mom said the old security guard scrutinized my father and then his face lit up as he said:  "Mr. MyDad'sName"????

It turned out this was the same security guard who had worked at the building during my Dad's time, My Dad remembered his name as well.  To make a long story short my Mom and Dad were given a guided tour of the building.

My Mom told me why that guy remembered my Dad's name.  "Your father made a point of knowing everyone's name, it didn't matter if they were the president of the company or the janitor".

He was a helluva a man.  

Year's later he was pushed aside, given a job he didn't want, managing a new local branch of a bank in the Pacific Northwest of the United States.  Regardless he endeavored to make it a successful launch. His branch was right on the street that divided the city between black and white, so my Dad made a point of hiring staff who reflected the community in which the business was located.

When it came time for the official opening some senior execs flew in from Toronto.  My Dad and Mom met with them in our family room, sitting around the bar, I was sent to my room down the hall. Up to that point in my life I had never heard my father swear, except perhaps for the word ass.  I soon got the Full Monty.  It wasn't until years later that I found out what happened, again with my Mother telling the tale.

Sitting around the bar in the family room of our house my Dad was asked what he was planning to do for the grand opening.  His answer...."Nothing special, the usual coffee and donuts".  One of the guys from Toronto then said:  "In that area???  Are you nuts???  You'll have every coon in the neighborhood in there".  

As my Mother later told me, and my Father reluctantly confirmed, Dad lost it.  Along with a profanity laced tirade Dad said he'd kick their Effing Asses all the way back to Toronto if they told him how to run his branch. 

Within a year he resigned.  If he hadn't had a wife and three kids to support I suspect he would have quit that very day.  We moved back to Canada and the rest is just prologue.

Which brings me to the reason I write this blog.  When it comes to stocks and investments, retail investors are harp seals swimming in waters infested with killer whales.   And the industry players who infest social media sites have no respect for retail investors, their only aim is to make money for themselves.  

Companies that have little to no value get pumped and promoted, with IR firms and other promotional outfits being paid to bring the retail herd into the slaughter house.  Analysts who work for Investment banks tout investment in companies when their firm is underwriting secondary offerings.  The rich get richer and too many retail investors get lured into stocks that are being sold high by the very people who are telling the retail crowd that they're buying low.

One point I wish to make abundantly clear.  I am no expert, but I will express honest opinions.  I will not write bullish opinion about a stock that I am selling, nor will I trash a company when I am buying it's shares.  That's not treating people with respect, and its not what my Dad taught me.

If you continue visiting this blog you'll see me referencing my Father on occasion and sharing some of the things he taught me.  One of his favorite bromides, especially with speculative stocks, is that "you'll never go broke taking profits" another was "don't marry a stock".

Peace out....


Thursday, April 28, 2016

Lessons for Lithium Players in Medical Marijuana Scams

A couple of years ago there was an explosion of companies touting themselves in the Medical Marijuana space as investors stormed in, hopeful of getting rich by investing in Wacky Tabacky stocks.

Those doing the same now with Jr. Lithium miners would do well to learn the lessons taught by some of the scams that came out of the Pot Bubble.  Here is a linked article dealing with charges brought against promoters of a pump and dump scheme involving two companies from last year, PHOT and HEMP, both traded on the OTC market in the US.


Of course there are tons of other examples where MJ stocks soared and then tanked that didn't break any laws  As far as I'm aware there are not statutes against taking advantage of stupidity combined with greed.  And with carefully worded news and promotional stories it is possible to spur interest in a stock without running afoul of the law.

In the case of companies promoting themselves as Marijuana plays, news items and toutsheets could herald the liberalization of marijuana laws and talk about the fact that "mary jane" is projected to be a multi billion dollar industry.  It pays to have a firm handle on hyperbole, because at times like these hyperbole runs rampant. 

For those unfamiliar with the word hyperbole, I define it as meaningless words meant to sound meaningful.  Here's an example of how I see hyperbole being used now with Jr. Lithium miners.


  • Dewey Cheatham & Howe Minerals is pleased to announce that we have just acquired a claim of over 500 acres in the same area as Existing Lithium Mining.  This claim has the same topographical and geological makeup as that of Existing Lithium Mining and we are excited to have made this acquisition with the aim of advancing our Lithium Mining Project.  CEO I. Cheatham stated: "We firmly believe that with demand for Lithium exploding that we are uniquely positioned to monetize our Lithium Project.  Prices for Lithium have more than doubled in just the past year.  And with Tesla and other EV companies ramping up production the global Lithium market is forecast to be approaching $2 trillion dollars by 2020".  

If you've been following Jr Lithium companies and reading their press releases that might sound just a little familiar.  And there's nothing wrong with it, Lithium spot prices have more than doubled recently, and the global market for Lithium is forecast to be nearly $2 trillion by 2020.  That doesn't mean that this fictional Jr Lithium miner will see even one tenth of one percentage point of it.  But the goal of PRs of this sort is to get potential investors to buy stock.  

What does the overall world Lithium Market have to do with a Jr Miner that doesn't even have a single permit in place?  And that's to say nothing of all the other steps, (environmental assessments, financing, evaluation of provable and probable resources, etc) that need to be taken, steps that take years to complete.

I am confident in predicting that of the dozens of Jr. Lithium miners now popping up, that only a small handful will ever make it to production. So here are some guidelines on what to possibly look for in my opinion.

  1. Many of these companies are listed on Canada's Venture Exchange, which has a well earned reputation for being the wild west of the investment world, and a favored listing for poorly capitalized and barely surviving Jr Mining Companies.  Here's an article in Canada's National Post newspaper on over 900 alleged "Zombie Companies".  (LINKED ARTICLE)  Canada's main index is the TMX and is the senior exchange.  If you use yahoo finance a TMX listed stock has .TO after the symbol, Venture listed stocks end with .V
  2. Check the share structure to see how many shares are already issued.  Many of these companies have been around for a long time and already have 50 or even 100+ million shares issued and little or zero revenue.
  3. Check to see if there are any promotional outfits hyping them and read the disclaimers, Youtube is a good place to look as many Investor Relationship companies do videos now.
  4. Read any PRs and company filings carefully taking particular note of forward looking language like "we expect, anticipate, forecast" etc.

I'm not listing any company names here but here are two linked articles which list a number of Jr. Miners.  The first is from a site called nanalyze that lists 19 Juniors, all with market caps of at least $5 milllion: 19 Lithium Junior Mining Stocks

The second is from a Seeking Alpha writer: The Junior Lithium Miners 

DISCLAIMER
This is strictly an opinion piece, and my opinion could very well turn out to be wrong. This instablog post is intended strictly for informational and entertainment purposes and should not be used as a basis for any investment decisions. Investing in stocks or options involves significant risks. For investment advice you should seek the input of a professional investment advisor.



Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Lithium Americas - Cup and Handle Forming (LAC.TO or LACDF)

Even if you know next to nothing about Technical Analysis and chart patterns you've probably heard of a cup and handle pattern before.  While no chart pattern or technical indicator is right 100% of the time, certain patterns like the cup and handle become well known because of their overall success in predicting price moves.

Here is the chart for LAC.TO


The left hand side of the cup formed after the spike up around $1 in May of 2015, with the drop and rise forming first the base of the cup and then the right hand side.  After getting up around $1.00 again this April the PPS has slid all the way back to in around 75 cents as I write this.

This pull back I believe will prove to be the handle of the cup and handle pattern.  If the pattern plays out as I am expecting I think we will see a breakout similar to what happened in late March when the PPS pulled back down in and around 45 cents before running up to $1 in April.  I also consider it very possible that LAC could trade as low as 65 cents if this pattern plays out.

Do note that I have a long position in LAC.TO and so my opinion is not without bias.  There is something called ''confirmation bias'' where someone loses perspective because of a preconceived idea or opinion.  Also note that my opinion can change, and I may sell some or all of my shares if my opinion changes from bullish to bearish.

The most likely reason that my bullish opinion could change on Lithium Americas is if I were to find them paying promotional outfits with volumes going to 20+ million on a daily basis.

Comments are always welcomed, all I ask is that rules of common courtesy and respect be followed.
DISCLAIMER
This is strictly an opinion piece, and my opinion could very well turn out to be wrong. This blog post is intended strictly for informational and entertainment purposes and should not be used as a basis for any investment decisions. Avoidthebag.com is not a registered broker or investment adviser.  Investing in stocks or options involves significant risks. For investment advice you should seek the input of a professional investment adviser.

Stock Promotion - How much is too much? (Nemaska Lithium)

Over a year ago I had a brain storm, with so many devices powered by Lithium batteries, to say nothing of Tesla and the emerging market for EVs, investing in companies engaged in Lithium Mining seemed a pretty good bet.

But last year there wasn't the explosion in interest that I've witnessed over the past several weeks as the buzz about Lithium stocks has gone mainstream.  Last year I researched Lithium Mining companies, discovering that if I wanted to invest in a "pure" Lithium play, that I would have to pick from a number of Juniors.

There were, (and are) major players.  Established mining companies that are dominating the Lithium market place right now.  SQM, FMC and Albemarle are the three major incumbents, but for each one Lithium is but one small component of their mining operations.  While demand and prices for Li are growing exponentially, the impact on these major players is small because of how widely diversified they are.

Wanting to invest in a company that has Lithium first, second and last as their business focus, I had to opt for a Junior Miner, that is to say a company that wasn't yet operational.  After doing my research I settled on two, Lithium Americas and Nemaska, and I think I made good choices.  I blogged about it last year on Seeking Alpha:


Based on my research I liked the potential for these two to bring their plans to fruition, to graduate from the status of junior miner to profitable businesses.  Neither one has yet achieved that status, however they are both getting very close.

Lithium Americas has entered into a 50/50 Joint Venture with the aforementioned SQM on the development of their Argentinian mine which was just announced at the end of March 2016.

And Nemaska has garnered significant grant and investments from various levels of government in Canada, and is expected to announce a pre-paid off take agreement with a battery manufacturer within the coming days or weeks.

Both have been impressive in executing their business plans in my opinion.  But something happened recently with Nemaska which led me to sell my shares, that something was promotion.

I want to be perfectly clear on one point here though.  Promotion with development stage companies is to be expected.  Companies go to the public markets in search of capital in order to fund a business plan because, being in the development stage, they are not making money.  Having Investor Relationship firms promote a company is essential in raising the profile of a company in order to attract investors.  Companies can then sell shares to raise money and thus execute on their business plans.

But its a matter of degree in my view.

Nemaska has garnered non-repayable grant money from Canada's federal government from a fund for sustainable development, they've also secured investment from the government of Quebec as well as from the local Cree nation near the proposed mine site.  They are touting themselves as well financed, in fact Dundee Capital Market's analyst David Talbot said in a research paper dated December 15th 2015 that:


I won't bother going into my views on analysts that work for firms which provide Investment Banking services to public companies, needless to say there's already been mountains of digital ink spilled about the potential for conflicts of interest.

I will merely speculate on Nemaska's need to pay promotional outfits for exposure when they're already well financed and also receiving a great deal of exposure from mainstream media outlets. My own opinion is that they don't need to be doing much.

They have analyst coverage from Dundee, Stormcrow and Cormark.  In French language media they've been the subject of numerous stories via such outlets as TVA and Radio Canada and CEO Guy Bourassa has been interviewed on Canada's BNN (Business News Network).

Why would they need more than that?

Well, whether Nemaska needs to do more or not, the fact is they have been doing more and will be doing more going forward.

Back on March 3rd Nemaska's CEO was "interviewed" by "The Ellis Martin Report".  I put interviewed in brackets because, as per the disclosure on this outfit's website:

  • The Ellis Martin Report is a radio news magazine broadcasted during market hours in 50 US cities and worldwide via the VoiceAmerica Business Channel.featuring potentially undervalued small-cap or microcap companies from a variety of industry sectors trading on a number of North American and foreign exchanges. Some analyst segments are sponsored and all company interviews and written reports have been compensated by the client companies featured. Invest at your own risk, as you may lose your investment.

I consider it a tad disingenuous to refer to something as an "interview" when the company being profiled paid to be there.  I always chuckle when I hear exchanges like:

Interviewer:  "Thanks so much for taking the time to talk with us today".
CEO:            "It was my pleasure, thank you for the opportunity".

To me that's like thanking an escort for taking the time to visit your hotel room.  For those who wish to hear the interview, it was uploaded to You Tube on March 4th, 2016:


They've also been promoted with "interviews" by InvestorIntel.  On top of paying these outfits, Nemaska is a sponsor for an upcoming Lithium Supply and Markets Conference in Las Vegas in May of this year.

Has all this promotion had an effect?  You bet it has, just look at a 3 month chart.  NMX on the TSX Venture exchange has gone from in and around 40 cents in February to its current levels in the $1 to $1.20 range.



Now, there are those who might suggest that my motivation for writing this blog piece is that....having sold out of Nemaska Lithium, that I am merely looking to justify my decision and to "bash" Nemaska so that I don't end up kicking myself if it were to climb substantially from its current PPS around $1.15

You might be surprised to know that I consider it very possible, and in point of fact likely, that NMX will trade higher.  "SO WHY DID YOU SELL THEN"!?!?!  I hear you asking.....

First I will explain why I consider it possible and in fact likely that NMX will trade higher.  Dilution is coming, in fact it already happened with more on the way.  As of March 31st of 2016 issued shares were listed at 207,475,385 and as of April 15th 2016 that number grew to 216,823,915 as per stockwatch.com for an increase of over 9,000,000 shares.

And if you go to Canadian Insider you will see that options in the millions have been granted this month alone.  (Canadian Insider Nemaska).

A market requires buyers and sellers, that is obvious.  And when its retail investors doing the buying because of something they heard on a paid interview or because of what some analyst has written, nothing in my opinion gets them more excited than seeing the PPS for a stock they're watching climbing.  "This must be good, look at the price...it keeps going higher, I better get in".

As for why I sold, take note of the Title for this blog.  Avoid the bag.  Nemaska is still a speculative investment, they are not projected to have a fully operating mine until sometime in 2018, and between now and then lots can happen, including the selling of a lot more shares.  I did very well with it, and if I left some money on the table by selling too soon, that's okay.  I believe it was JP Morgan who answered the question:  "How did you get so rich"?  With the answer, "I always got out too soon".

I'm still invested in Lithium America's and will explain why with my next blog posting.  For those who are looking at LAC and want a spoiler about what I'm going to write, I am expecting to see support for that stock firming up around the 65 to 70 cent area CDN based on my opinion of the emerging chart pattern.

DISCLAIMER
This is strictly an opinion piece, and my opinion could very well turn out to be wrong. This blog post is intended strictly for informational and entertainment purposes and should not be used as a basis for any investment decisions. Avoidthebag.com is not a registered broker or investment adviser.  Investing in stocks or options involves significant risks. For investment advice you should seek the input of a professional investment adviser.