When to Take Profits - Why its so hard to sell....

It is Sunday again, a time when I like to reflect on the aspects of the public market that daze and amaze, that confound and astound, the fun and games that can thrill and send chills down the spines of retail investors. 

Life lessons can be hard, very hard.  Often its only through getting beaten up that we learn things. Battle scars, bumps and bruises can be great teachers.  Of course there are stubborn individuals who will never learn, who insist that their way of doing things must be right, even if the results are always bad.  "This time will be different", is a common mantra.  But its often said that only fools keep doing the same things over and over while expecting different results.  

I've never met anyone who's goal in the markets is to lose money, lots do of course, but the goal from the start is to make profits.   However lots of people lose money, tons of people losing tons of cash.  And too often these individuals had ample oppourtunity to put some green into their pockets, but they couldn't bring themselves to hit the sell button, it was too hard.

Well I'm going to tell you some things right now, and in my opinion these are things you're not likely to read anywhere else.  No industry player is going to share what I am about to share, not with some retail schmuck hoping to make a buck in the public markets.

Here it is.

At times when a stock has made significant gains, when investors have big "paper profits" but no capital gains, this is when the market will often employ all its devices and tricks to convince retail investors that sellers are getting screwed, that they're being swindled out of their precious shares.  And this is never more true than with highly speculative stocks for poorly managed companies that are bleeding cash.

Read that last paragraph again, please....

What am I talking about?  What are these devices....these "tricks".  There are far too many, but I can certainly give some examples.  Here are three of my favorites....

The after hours drop on small volume.  

You've bought a stock, 5,000 shares at $2 and now its trading at $10.  That means you've made a 500% return, but only if you sell.  And you're thinking about it, but then you see a 50 share trade after hours or pre-market that drops the PPS to $8.50.  "What the hell"?!?!?  You're incredulous.   

At $10 your 5,000 shares were worth $50,000 but at $8.50 they're only worth $42,500....$7,500 just disappeared.  "The bastids are screwing with it and trying to scare out the stupid, well I'm not stupid....I'm gonna hold tight, hell I might just buy some more"!!!

Beware that Ice Berg!!!  

That $2 stock you bought that's now trading at $10....you still decide that maybe it might be time to take some of those shares and turn them into cash.  You go to execute a trade and you see 5,000 lots bidding at $9.95 but on the ask side there are only 5 lots on the offer at $10.  It looks like demand is massive and supply is limited.  

YOU'D HAVE TO BE CRAZY TO SELL NOW!!!  

Hell, with so much demand and supply so low you might decide to buy some more.  Watch out!!! 

Those 5 lots you're seeing on the ask, they might just be the tip of an iceberg.  

An Ice Berg Order allows a seller to have one portion of their sell order visible, and the other part hidden.  While there may just be 5 showing there could be another 10,000 as the hidden portion.   It looks like there's hardly anything available, when in fact there is tons.  Those 5,000 bid lots could also be a "bluff" placed by the big player who's also behind the massive hidden iceberg order. 

The Scoop

This is the best one in my opinion.  Maybe you still decide its time to take some cash off the table, despite what appears to be massive demand and limited supply, and regardless of that 50 share trade outside of regular market hours.  But you're not 100% sure so you decide to test the waters with a limit order, offering 2,500 of your 5,000 shares at $10.25.  You're not even sure the PPS will go that high, the order might not even fill.

BUT IT DOES....your 2,500 shares are gone, and your buying power now reflects the $25,625.00 you've just made from your trade.  That's over $20K in profits.  BUT WAIT!!!  The PPS is still under $10???  Shares are still being bought and sold at $9.95 and yet someone came and scooped up your 2,500 shares for $10.25 each.   You're dumbfounded, "SOMEONE REALLY WANTED MY SHARES".....it certainly would seem that way.  So much so that they went over the market price to buy them.

But it might just be the same player with those 10,000 lots hidden in an iceberg order who bought your shares, the same party with the big bluff bid. 10,000 lots of 100 shares each equals 1,000,000 shares on the offer side....your 2,500 shares (a piddly 25 lots) are peanuts.  And now you might just buy them back, even if your buying sends that $9.95 price over $10 and up to $10.10....You're still ahead, you sold them for $10.25. 

Think you won?  Think again.

After selling 2,500 shares for $10.25 you had $25,625 in cold hard cash.  We'll say you then bought them back at an aveage price of $10 costing you $25,000.  Instead of $25,625 you've got just $625 in your account.  And the PPS will probably climb some more, but having seen someone go "over market" to scoop up your shares, you're not going to sell them again, especially if there are things like analyst predictions of much higher prices coming.  Obviously those who are selling, they're not as smart as you.  They're taking cash, but you're know your shares are worth more than cash.  Maybe you'll sell some at $15?  

************************************************************************

There's more of course, tons more in fact.  But that's the way it is, and in point of fact I would argue that's the way it has to be. Its a zero sum game, with every trade that takes place one party gets cash and the other gets shares.  You can't have your cake and eat it too, and you can't have your shares and the money they're trading at both at the same time.  Life is a pain.

Why does it have to be this way?  Because this is real life, and real life is about winners and losers, there's no "everyone gets a trophy" in the public markets.  This is a trillion dollar industry.  There are brokerage firms, media outlets, analysts, promoters, and of course the public companies themselves, many of which are using shares as capital to fund operations and pay salaries.  

If everyone wanted to buy at the same time, where would the shares come from?  Or if  everyone decided it was time to unload, there'd be nobody handing over cash.  Imagine a football game with both teams lined up on the same side of the ball at the same time, both wanting to play offence or defence with no opposition.  It wouldn't work.  

In the market game the big players have a multitude of ways to convince retailers to buy high and sell low so that they can do the opposite.  A retail investor can win, but its damn hard and most I would argue will fail.  

But I know retail will keep trying, and now hopefully some are better armed so they'll know what's going on.

Beacon Securities research on Resverlogix - 12 month target price $8.55 CDN

At the end of my most recent article, about BET Inhibitors, I noted that Beacon Securities had published a research report on Resverlogix.  But I didn't provide a link. The reason is because, quite simply, there isn't one.  But I can share the report regardless, to find out how keep reading.

If you go to Beacon's site you can see that there is a Research Report dated November 15th entitled:  "Initiating Coverage: Resverlogix Corp. (RVX-T) The New Doctor Is In.  First Perscription Is A Full Dose of Resverlogix: C$8.55".

Go ahead and check it out:  

https://beaconsecurities.ca/institutional-equity/research/archive/research-resverlogix-corp/

If you go to Beacon's site linked above and click on the report you'll be taken to a sign-in page requesting a User ID and Password.  You have to be an approved user if you want to access it.  As Mork would say, "Shazbot".  Beacon Securities no longer caters to retail customers, they jettisoned that part of their business back in 2015 to focus in on institutional clients.  You can read about that at the following link:  

http://www.investmentexecutive.com/-/beacon-securities-to-divest-its-retail-operations-next-week

And that's a shame because the author of the report has quite the background.  Its not often you get research by someone who holds both a PHD and an MBA.  The author's name is Dr. David M. Kideckel, and according to his Linked-In page he only just joined Beacon this past September, having come from Alexion Pharmaceuticals.  

I imagine I might have some reader's who would really like to read that report.  Especially given that RVX just climbed 23% this past week.  On top of that the website StockWatch shows investment house number #87, which is Beacon, as having bought 35,100 shares this week according to my calculations.  That is the first time I've seen Beacon show up at all as a buyer.  All the buying took place Thursday and Friday. 

I have to wonder.  Is this just the start?

Alright, there is a way to read the report.  Its a bit convoluted, but pretty simple.  An investor forum called Agoracom.com has a user by the name of "noretreat".  I don't know how he/she was able to do this, but it works.  The post this user put up includes a snippet, and a hyperlink that somehow allows readers to download the report.  

https://agoracom.com/ir/Resverlogix/forums/discussion/topics/700775-the-prescription/messages/2177321#message

Just go to that message board posting and click on the words "CLICK HERE TO VIEW FULL REPORT", its in blue lettering.  I've viewed it several times.  And if you wouldn't mind leaving a comment and sharing your impressions it would be much appreciated.  

BET Inhibitors - The next big thing in Biotech? (RVX.TO / RVXCF)

Why it pays to get in early

In investing circles its sometimes called the "first mover" or "early adoption" advantage.  Being ahead of the curve can pay off big.  Its worked for me a few times, I wrote about some lithium miners both here and on Seeking Alpha years ago.  And I've had success in the energy storage market space as well.

In Biotech CAR-T was all the rage for a time with companies like Kite Pharmceutical and Juno Theraputics attaining multi billion dollar valuations.  Kite was bought out for $12 Billion by Gilead Sciences just recently.  Even Ziopharm, a late comer to the CAR-T party spiked big.  Early buyers watched ZIOP's share price climb from down around $3 in late 2014 to up around $15 in early 2015, although it has crashed hard and is back in the $4 to $5 area now.

The take away is really quite simple.  Most investors don't have the fortitude and foresight to buy until there's excitment.  Many prefer to wait for big volumes and a spiking share price.  Some need to hear the talking heads making buy reccomendations.  There are those who genuinely believe buying high is less risky than buying low.  

And once the party starts the herd is more than happy to come in and pay inflated prices, convinced they've caught lightening in a bottle.  Lots of retail players don't care if they're buying into a stock or a sector that has already seen huge gains. They buy when industry "experts" say a a stock is a "MUST HAVE". 

Of course getting in late can be costly, think of the poor Ziopharm investors who paid nearly $15 per share back in 2015.  Those who have held tight need the PPS to go up around 300% just to break even.

Will BET Inhibitors be hot hot hot?

Do BET Inhibitors and the companies developing them have that kind of potential?  Could firms in this space see the same multi-billion dollar valuations that some CAR-T developers saw?

I believe so.  In fact I think it could be even bigger than the CAR-T space.  And as the only company with a compound in a Phase III trial I believe Resverlogix (RVX.TO / RVXCF) could have blockbuster potential in a variety of indications.

Okay....I hear some saying.  What the frick is a BET Inhibitor???

Firstly the B in BET stands for Bromodomain.  Everyone knows what "domain" means, well Bromodomain refers to an approximately 110 protein "domain" that recognizes acetylated lysine residues.  I can almost picture the confused looks on some reader's faces.  "The acetylated lysine residues"???  For many it probably makes as much sense as "Mersey Dotes and Doesy Dotes and Little Lambsy Divey".

What we're talking about here is Epigenetics which is much easier to understand.

Everyone knows what their Genes are, X and Y chromosones and all that stuff.  Think of it in terms of a computer, Genetics (the DNA) represent the hardware of the computer.  Epi-Genetics represents the software, basically turning things off and on.  Epi is Latin and it means above, so Epi-Genetics is above the Genetic level and involves what are called:  Readers, Writers and Erasers.

Now picture being able to read genes and then to modify their properties so as to eliminate disease causing conditions.  If you can wrap your head around that concept then you have a layman's understanding of EpiGenetics and BET Inhibitors.  

I'm not going to get into heavy duty science because its beyond my realm, I understand it like I understood CAR-T....the basics.  But I didn't understand much about mining either when I was buying Nemaska Lithium at 15 cents.  

Are there Big Pharma Players involved?

What I see with BET Inhibitors is massive potential, and I'm not the only one.  Those like myself with only an undergraduate or high school education in science might not entirely grasp the full picture.  But others like researchers at Big Pharma companies such as Roche, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) do.  BET Inhibitors are catching on big.    

GSK is conducting a Phase I clinical trial for I-BET762

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24107192

Roche has RO6870810 also in Phase I:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03068351

I'll leave readers interested in doing further research on where Big Pharma players are at in developing their BET Inhibitor pipelines to their own devices.  There is simply too much out there to cover.  But what you will find is that the major players are in the early stages, pre-clinical and Phase one.  

Is Resverlogix ahead of the pack?

As is often the case, its a smaller more nimble development stage company that has the lead.  That would be Resverlogix, based in Calgary Alberta Canada and San Francisco.  Resverlogix is developing RVX-208 which is the first BET Inhibitor to be named, its called Apabetalone.  Apabetalone isn't just in Phase I or II, it is in phase III with a clincal trail called BETonMACE.  

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02586155?term=apabetalone&rank=5

This is an event based trial that has been running for two years and is seeking to demonstrate that Apabetalone administered with Statins will reduce the incidence of Major Adverse Cardiac Events, referred to as MACE, versus treatment with Statins alone.  

Already the trial has received 5 positives reccomendations from its independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB).  The most recent coming on November 1, 2017.  

https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/11/01/1172169/0/en/Resverlogix-Announces-Fifth-Positive-Recommendation-From-Data-Safety-Monitoring-Board-For-Phase-3-Study-of-Apabetalone.html

That PR notes that the DSMB, after reviewing the data, noted no safety or efficacy concerns. 

This trial is being conducted on individuals suffering from Diabetes Mellitus with a subset of patients also suffering from Chronic Kidney Disease or CKD for short.  Those familiar with Diabetes and CKD know that the risk of  Major Adverse Cardiac Events, like heart attacks and strokes, is incredibly high.

But there is more.  I said that Apabetalone has blockbuster potential in a variety of indications, and that means more than just Diabetes and CKD.  There's a trial planned for patients with Fabry disease, an orphan indication.  

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03228940?term=apabetalone&rank=2

Even Pfizer has taken note of Apabetalone's potential to treat a rare disease called Friedreich's Ataxia which causes progressive damage to the nervous system:  

https://friedreichsataxianews.com/2017/05/25/pfizer-seeks-patent-covering-friedreichs-ataxia-therapy-resverlogixs-has-already-developed/

On top of all that there's potential for Alzheimers, Thrombosis, and other orphan indications.  I don't think "blockbuster potential" is overstating things at all.  In fact if Apabetalone is successful in treating all the indications that show promise, then the term miracle drug might be more fitting.

Are there any near term catalysts to look forward to?

As of this writing Resverlogix is trading at (in this writer's opinion) the incredibly low Market Capitalization of just over $155 million CDN, that's less than $125 million USD.  And there are a number of near term developments which could have a hugely positive impact in raising that valuation.  

The biggest near term potential catalyst in my view would be finalization of an $87 million CDN investment by Chinese based Pharmaceutical company Shenzhen Hepalink.  That deal was announced on October 13th, and requires regulatory approval.  

China is hot again.  Biotech watchers probably saw the explosion of Acasti Pharma this week when they announced a non-binding term sheet with an unnamed Chinese Pharaceutical company.   Cynics might view a non binding agreement with an unnamed company and roll their eyes.  But after that news came out the PPS for ACST jumped from $1.25 the previous day to $3.10 by the closing bell.  

If a stock like ACST can jump like that on a deal that might not even come to fruition, with a company that isn't even named, I can only imagine what could happen with news of Shenzhen Hepalink's investment in Resverlogix being finalized.

Then there's is the Futility Analysis (FA) for the BETonMACE trial which could come out any time now.  A positive FA could attract serious attention, not just from investors, but possibly from major Pharmaceutical companies as well.

There are risks involed

I will point out the fact that there are obviously risk factors here, and I will encourage readers to go over the disclaimer infomation at the bottom of this site.  I am a shareholder and my opinions should be viewed in that light, I eat my own cooking in other words.

Obviously if there were no risks and Resverlogix was 100% assured to have success with Apabetalone, then the market cap wouldn't be sitting where it is.  Shares of RVX.TO have been trading around the $1.30 since June of this year with a couple of short lived spikes thrown in.  

I do believe the PPS could be on the cusp of another move, one that is bigger than anything previously seen.  Independent investment dealer Beacon Securities, which caters to institutional clients, just published a report on Resverlogix with a 12 month PPS target of $8.55 CDN, a report that discloses no payment from the company.  

Comments are always welcome, I do appreciate feedback.  I only ask that comments not include any profanity or attacks, any that do will not be posted.

CREG - A case of blatant manipulation?

Trading in shares of China Recycled Energy Corp cooled off a bit from Thursday and Fridays frentic action.  Of course volume of over 6 million is still eye-popping for a company with only 8.3 million shares reported as outstanding.  But its signficantly lower than the 25+ million that traded each of the previous two sessions last week.

If you're reading this miserable and pathetic little blog in hopes of finding some fundamental justification for shares of CREG to climb substantially from the most recent closing price of $5.36, then you're going to be disappointed.  Its not that I think China Recycled Energy Corp is a bad investment based on anything fundamental, its just that I don't think the fundamentals matter one iota at this juncture.  

Fundamentals don't matter???  That's what I hear some saying.  Nope, not with this stock, not right now as I see things.  What matters in my opinion is who owns shares, and who is short shares.  Its the old golden rule.  Not the "do unto others" rule you find in The Bible, but the more cynical: "He who has the gold makes the rules".  

In my opinion the surge in buying that took CREG by storm, it wasn't supposed to happen.  The company didn't put out a bullish press release, there were no promoters hyping this as a winning play, and no analysts were touting CREG to their books.  None of that was going on as near as I can tell.  

What did happen is that news came out about China Energy Investment Corp signing an $83.7 Billion MOU for engergy projects in West Virgina.  Coupled with Donald Trump's visit to China and a reported $250 Billion in trade deals that were announced, and you had a perfect storm.  Investors poured into CREG and sent the PPS soaring from around $1.25 as recently as this past Wednesay, to as high as $9.39 this past Friday.

Instead of buying shares of China Energery Investment Corp, investors were buying into China Recycled Energy Corp.  So what were they buying?  A profitable Chinese company which provides roof top equipment for industrial plants like steel mills.  This equipment captures the heat and converts it into electricity.  That's the 100 mile up version of the business, for more in depth information I invite readers to do their own research.  

Why am I not going into greater depth?  In case you missed it, I don't believe the fundamentals here matter.  Well, perhaps one fundamental metric does come into play with CREG, and that would be share count.

In this writer's opinion retail players, both big and small, they stormed in and started demanding shares...putting in buy orders through their brokerages.  From whom are buyers purchasing shares?  Not from sellers directly, but from Market Maker Broker Dealers (MMs for short) engaged in making a market for shares of CREG.  

And that's the problem.  I believe buyers overwhelmed MMs and forced them to go short to fulfil the demand.  And because MMs are exempted from regulations designed to eliminate naked short selling....well I think there's a massive open and naked short position in CREG right now.  

I'm going to be a bit harsh here and suggest that those who don't understand the concept of short selling in general, and naked short selling in particular....that you really don't have any business playing around with stocks in the first place, that's my view.  

Regulation SHO requires that short sellers first make positive determination that the shares they're going short on, that they're actually available to be borrowed.  When short sellers are unable to locate the shares they sold short, its called a delivery failure.  A delivery failure means the short seller is naked, and its against the rules.  There is an exception however, and it involves...yes, you guess it, Market Maker Broker dealers.  Here's the cut and paste from SEC.GOV, just click to go directly to the site:

• Failures to deliver may result from either a short or a long sale. There may be legitimate reasons for a failure to deliver. For example, human or mechanical errors or processing delays can result from transferring securities in physical certificate rather than book-entry form, thus causing a failure to deliver on a long sale within the normal three-day settlement period. A fail may also result from “naked” short selling. For example, market makers who sell short thinly traded, illiquid stock in response to customer demand may encounter difficulty in obtaining securities when the time for delivery arrives.

• “Naked” short selling is not necessarily a violation of the federal securities laws or the Commission’s rules. Indeed, in certain circumstances, “naked” short selling contributes to market liquidity. For example, broker-dealers that make a market in a security[4] generally stand ready to buy and sell the security on a regular and continuous basis at a publicly quoted price, even when there are no other buyers or sellers. Thus, market makers must sell a security to a buyer even when there are temporary shortages of that security available in the market. This may occur, for example, if there is a sudden surge in buying interest in that security, or if few investors are selling the security at that time. Because it may take a market maker considerable time to purchase or arrange to borrow the security, a market maker engaged in bona fide market making, particularly in a fast-moving market, may need to sell the security short without having arranged to borrow shares. This is especially true for market makers in thinly traded, illiquid stocks as there may be few shares available to purchase or borrow at a given time.  (All emphasis is mine)

That's exactly what's happened with CREG as far as as I'm concerned.  I can envision MMs having a collective short position in the 10s of millions of shares....I imagine that there may very well be shops that by themselves alone are looking at 5 million shares or more they need to cover.  And that's in a company with only 8.3 million outstanding shares reported.  

How can they cover?  I would suggest that the chances would be zero if the PPS had kept running higher and higher.  No, in my view....they had to slam the brakes on, hard.  But wait I hear some saying:  "So what"???  These MMs compete with each other, so here's a chance for those houses that aren't short to screw the shops that are.  Not so fast.

Years ago the US Department of Justice uncovered a practice called "Moves on Request".  Call it professional courtesy if you will, or better still maybe 'honor among thieves'.  It works like this, a broker who is looking to manipulate a stock will ask his fellow MMs to change their bid/ask based on the direction he needs the price to move.  Up when he's long and down when he's short.  Other MMs comply because they know that they'll be in a similar situation at some point. 

Its a quid pro quo situation, and for those who's Latin isn't great "quid pro quo" basically means "you scratch my back I'll scratch yours".  Here's that related info from the DOJ:  

• First, the investigation uncovered numerous examples of what are often referred to as "moves on request." A "move on request" occurs when trader A calls trader B and asks him to change the price he is quoting for the purpose of affecting the market in that stock.(18) When B complies, his move will generate a misimpression that there is an additional buying or selling interest in the stock, from which A will possibly profit. Trader B benefits because A will return the favor when B wants to influence the market in a stock.

If you're checking social media and seeing confident claims that CREG is a pump and dump, or a scam or other such drivel, then you're probably reading the posts of someone attached to a brokerage house that has found itself massively short, that's my opinion.  

But...like it or lump it, that's the public markets.  There are garbage stocks out there with accumulated deficits of $100 million or more, that are only surviving because they keep printing more and more shares to meet expenses and to enrich company executives.  And these companies will have Market Captializations of $100 million or more.  But MMs are not short on those stocks, in fact they may have clients who are dumping.  CREG's market cap isn't even $50 million, and its profitable as per the most recently available filings.  

But again, fundamentals don't matter....its the Cynic's Golden Rule and the players who control the market are short on CREG bigly, so the trend is going to be down in my opinion.  I will hold out one bit of hope, and its for this reason that I still am holding some of the shares I'd bought before this big move.  That hope is an announcement of some kind of dividend payment, even if its just one single penny per share.  A $0.01 per share dividend would only cost $83,000 for 8.3 million shares.  Those caught short would have to pay the dividend on the shares they borrowed, whether those shares exist or not. 

Comments of course are welcome, but no profanity or attacks.  

China Recyling Energy Corp (CREG) - End of week explosion...

I wrote about CREG back in June of 2016 expressing the opinion that shares were undergoing "smart money accumulation". I called it a thesis, for lack of a better word.  It was written as CREG was trading close to the $1.00 mark after having enacted a 1:10 share consolidation to regain compliance with the rules of the Nasdaq exchange.

Is a reverse split ever a good thing? China Recycling Energy (CREG)

That was a while ago, and until Thursday and Friday of this week CREG was about as boring a stock as you could find.  Typical volumes were low, pathetically low.  Most days saw just a few thousand shares changing hands.  A day with volume of 100K could be considered huge.  But that's nothing compared to the 50+  million that traded during the last two days.  

So, why the sudden surge in interest?  Firstly I think its important to note that, as per the most recent corporate filing, there were only 8.3 million shares outstanding as of August 9th 2017.   That's right, just 8.3 million, which means that the volume of the past 2 days of trading exceeded the number of shares by a factor of more than 6.  

Also from that same filing total current assets came in at $83.3 million, which on a per share basis is 

a little over $10.  I'm not pointing that out as a suggestion for a possible price target however.  These numbers are from the 10Q filing for the period ending June 30th 2017, and we're now in November.  Its very possible, and likely in my opinion, that there have been substantial changes to the fundamental picture.  

Here's a link to that filing:  

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=12229141&RcvdDate=8/11/2017&CoName=CHINA%20RECYCLING%20ENERGY%20CORP&FormType=10-Q&View=html

That filing came out on August 11th, which means that the 3rd quarter 10Q should be coming out any day now.  However realize that the 3rd quarter ended on September 30th just passed, so information in the new filing will still be old, just not as old.   

If you're reading this miserable and pathetic little blog in hopes of finding a diffinitive reason for the sudden increase in trading, well you're going to be disappointed.  That's not to say I don't have an opinion, I do. I think it has a lot to do with the news of China Energy Investment Corp signing a Memorandum of Understanding to invest $83.7 billion for various projects in the state of West Virginia.  

Here's a link to that news:  

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-asia-energy-west-virginia/china-energy-investment-signs-mou-for-83-7-billion-in-west-virginia-projects-idUSKBN1D90S9?il=0

To be clear, as far as I'm aware China Recycling Energy Corp which trades on the Nasdaq under the symbol CREG, I do not believe there is any connection with this publicly traded company and China Energy Investment Corp, none whatsoever.

I do however consider it likely that Wednesday's early morning news about Trump's visit to China and the $250+ billion in trade deals signed, that this was the spark which sent CREG on its wild ride.  Here's a link mentioning the trade deals in the context of President Trump's visit to China.

http://www.bnn.ca/trump-gives-china-great-credit-for-trade-advantage-leaves-with-us-250b-plus-in-deals-1.910448

If you were to search for publicly traded companies with the words China and Energy, then CREG would probably be top of the list.  And then.....in my opinion High Frequency Trading (HFT) takes over.  And with CREG having such a small float, and trading at an incredibly depressed level....its the perfect storm.   

I've already blogged on here about BOTs that monitor the POTUS Twitter account using algorithms to determine if a Tweet about a public company is positive or negative, and taking out a corresponding long or short position automatically.  Its all done in seconds, that's the world we're in now.  

We'll see what CREG reports when their filing comes out.  Regardless of the reasons this quiet and almost invisible little company now has a lot more people watching it. As PT Barnum famously said, "There's no such thing as bad advertising".  With the float being so small here the party might only just be getting started, we'll have to wait and see what the quarterly filing says. If the numbers are less than inspiring however, things might just start dropping off fast.  

It was with this realization that I sold a little over a quarter of my CREG shares on Wednesday.  I didn't get the top price, nowhere close, less than $6 in two trades.  We'll see what happens next week, no matter what happens though I will probably end up having some regrets.  If the PPS goes to $20 I'll wish I hadn't sold any, and if it falls back to $1 or $2 I'll be wishing I sold them all.

Bottom line though, and something I constantly remind readers of....Nobody ever goes broke from taking profits.

Happy Trading.  

Vuzix - Losses and accumulated deficit continue to grow...

Despite being around for 20 years, thus now entering its third decade of existence, you could be forgiven for thinking that Vuzix is a start up company.  The financial performance is more reflective of a company that recently underwent an IPO in my view, not one that ascended to the Nasdaq from the OTC penny world after a 1:75 share consolidation in early 2013.

With bottom line performance like what they just reported, they may be headed back to trading over the counter.

Here's a link to the 10Q filing that just came out for the quarter ended September 30th 2017:  

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=12372885&RcvdDate=11/9/2017&CoName=VUZIX%20CORP&FormType=10-Q&View=html

I know the rainbow and unicorn crowd will all want this to be ignored, and for the focus to be on what might happen next year.  I'll deal with that later, by looking at what was expected for 2017 when the company reported third quarter results in 2016.  Spoiler alert, in 2016 things looked fantastic going forward into 2017.  

But back to the 3rd quarter just completed.  If there's one area where Vuzix exceeds expectations, its in their ability to lose more money than forecasted.  As per Yahoo Finance, analysts were estimating losses per share of (-$0.17).  They blew that number out of the water, but not in a good way. with losses reported at ($-0.28) per share, off by 11 cents.  

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VUZI/analysts?p=VUZI

More numbers that were just reported for the three months ended Sept. 30th 2017. The loss attributable to common shareholders came in at over $5.9 million.  On the revenue side analysts were forecasting $2.14 million while the result was only $1.41 million.  Less revenue and higher losses than expected.  Anyone who thinks that a winning formula probably works for the accounting firm of Dewey, Cheatham and Howe, (say it fast).

And the accumulated deficit?  Up to September 30th the number grew to over $90.5 million.  But as we all know, the rainbow and unicorn types love deficits.  Meanwhile the share count just keeps going higher and higher.  Up to Aug 9th 2017 the number was 20,674,742 shares, as of November 9th that had grown to 22,203,911 shares.  

I don't expect it will too long before shareholders experience even more dilution.  The last raise was for $8.6 million after issuing another 1.5 million shares.  Given the just reported loss of $5.9 million over just 3 months, I would suspect that cash in going to be running seriously low before the end of the year.  

Alright....now onto expectations for 2018.  There are lots of social media types posting all over stock message boards about this "great" (sic) earnings report.  That's not surprising, Vuzix is no stranger to stock promoters with reports saying over 20 have been engaged over the years.  

Obviously even a brain dead pumper can't put lipstick on the ugly losses and the missed expectations.  But they can try to build expectations for next year.  With another dilutive share issue likely in the cards it would make sense.  If the PPS can be held up by enticing shareholders to hang tight and buy more, that means less shares have to be printed.

Here's what was being said in 2016 about what to expect in 2017.

"The Company currently has pending orders from hundreds of unique VAR customers for the M300, each of whom is building a business around Vuzix Smart Glasses for the enterprise markets. Pre-orders for these new M300, including migration packages, are included in primarily as deferred revenues and will not be recognized as revenues until they ship to the customer..."

That was after reporting losses of 32 cents per share, which might seem better than the just reported loss of 28 cents per share. But note that back then there were only 17,560,686 shares reported as outstanding, not the 22,903,911 that were just reported.  Last year's 3rd quarter loss was reported at over $5.4 million, less than the just reported loss of over $5.9 million.....

Anyway here's some of what's being released about expectations going forward, emphasis on forward looking language is my own:

"....hundreds of active M300 pilot programs across a variety of industries and continues to see a fundamental shift occurring in the enterprise space from pilot programs moving to commercial volume multi-site rollouts.  Our M300 gross margins continue to improve and with our various manufacturing processes and quality improvements in China, we are back on track to produce and deliver higher volumes to support our expectations of further growth in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2017 and beyond.  The stage is set for another record year in 2018 for Vuzix driven by commercial enterprise smart glasses deployments and higher adoption rates

We shall see.  It sounds good but its very short on specifics.  Higher volumes?  How much higher?  10 more units, 100, 1000.....or just 1 unit higher?  It all sounds like more rainbows and unicorns to me, reminiscient of the tech bubble Digi-Scents, Pets.com days.  

Will they make money in 2018?  In my opinion, no....not even close.  Happy trading, the PPS moved above the 50DMA with Thursday's trading.  We shall see if these results and expectations for 2018 can keep it there or if it will be yet another short lived blip on the road down.  

I still have no position long or short, so no skin in the game.  Happy trading.

Peace

Vuzix - Expecting more bad results (VUZI)

I have been writing about Vuzix since last September when it was brought to my attention by a wave of social media hype.  My first post was on Sept 3rd 2016 when the PPS was trading in the $9 area.  In that entry I explained the reasons why I decided to open a position on the short side.  Here's the link to that entry:

Vuzix - Time machine back to the tech bubble? Why I'm playing the short side

I offered up the view that I do believe that the AR/VR space will be viable.  In point of fact I expect Augmented/Virtual reality to be huge in the coming decade, both in the consumer and commercial/industrial markets.  However I'll be very surprised if Vuzix is anything more than a bit player, that's if they're even still around in another 10 years.

Why did I have, (and continue to have) that opinion?  

There's a lot of reasons, but primarily its because of something really simple, bottom line performance.  Virtual reality is all well and good, but when it comes to business reality  its basic economics that matters in my world.  And that means a business needs to bring in more revenue than it is spending.  Its a pretty common sense concept.

Of course September of 2016 was a long time ago.  I was told repeatedly on social media sites like Stock Twits that "next year" was going to be huge.  Well, 2017 is almost over and the results have hardly been inspiring, quite the opposite.  In the quarterly 10Q filing for the 3 months ending June 30th 2017 the company reported loss attributable to common stockholders of just under $4.5 million.  You can verify the numbers here:

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=12221774&RcvdDate=8/9/2017&CoName=VUZIX%20CORP&FormType=10-Q&View=html

Of course that was over 4 months ago.  More current results will be out shortly for the quarter ended September 30th 2017 and we'll see if there's been any improvement.  Realistically I think its prudent to expect more of the same.  

In the lead up to the release of 3rd quarter results there has been a flurry of bullish sounding news however.  Its because of this positive sounding news that I'm expecting more bad results in fact.  I see it as being market sleight of hand, like a magician who uses misdirection to get his audience to avert their attention while he plants a playing card so as to fool watchers into thinking it moved by magic.  

If the bottom line results continue to show the company losing millions of dollars, with the need for more dilution to fund operations, then it makes a lot of sense.  

Start up companies and other businesses in the public sphere with shares available to individual investors, those shares represent capital.  And ultimately its investor sentiment that rules the day.  

As I noted back over 12 months ago, in the days of the Tech Bubble there were countless companies losing millions of dollars every month that still had market capitalizations of $100 million and more.  Why?  Because investors were willing to ignore bottom line results, instead dreaming of boundless riches at some time in the future.  Rainbows and unicorns in other words.

So what's the news been of late?  On Tuesday November 7th the company put out news touting that it now has over 100 patents and patents pending:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/vuzix-patent-portfolio-increases-53-202300905.html

Patents are wonderful.  But do they actually contribute any revenue to the company?  In our fast moving technological world I have to wonder about how long technological patents will have any value at all.  With people replacing items like smartphones practically every year or two I don't believe intellectual property in the technology field is as valuable as it once was.  The patents on rotary phone technology were probably worth a lot of money at one point, today I'm guessing they'd be worthless.  

The news of Wednesday November 8th was about M300 programs topping 350:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/vuzix-m300-programs-top-350-201700959.html

Its full of things that sound good, but its long on hyperbole and short on specifics.  Here's some of the text, I will bold sections and comment.

• "...along with the many pilots that have already moved to volume production, the company has more than 350 M300 pilots across a broad customer base that includes numerous large global companies.  In addition to multi-site customer footprint expansions, Vuzix continues to see more complex and different use cases for the M300 that are now being successfully migrated beyond pilot programs in industries like pharma, logistics, field inspection and others.  The Vuzix M300 has an extensive distribution channel and is currently being shipped into 45 countries across the globe with plans underway to expand distribution to a further 55 countries worldwide".

Okay..this all sounds wonderful.  Doesn't it.  Volume production, numerous large global companies, expansions, extensive distribution.  But how much money is it bringing in and is that cash flow sufficient to sustain operations?  Or is the company going to continue to bleed red ink?  Are the units being shipped around the world costing the company money or earning profits?

The PR ends with rosy predictions about Vuzix being a big player in 2018 foretasted adoption of hundreds of thousands of smart glasses.  Will that prediction come true and if it does how big a slice will Vuzix get?  Once again, its "next year".  Back in November of 2017 the company was putting out news about volume shipments as well:  

https://ir.vuzix.com/press-releases/detail/1521/vuzix-next-generation-m300-smart-glasses-nears-final

Add in the fact that Apple is reported to be entering AR market, well....I think the writing is on the wall.  The window for competitors to establish a viable footprint is closing fast in my opinion.  You can read Apple's news here:  

https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/8/16622802/apple-ar-headset-augmented-reality-plans-rumors-2019

I fully expect the VUZI pumpers, shills and touts to tell me I'm out to lunch, they've been doing that since last September.  But while pumpers will lie, the chart doesn't.  

For those who use technicals I think the chart can prove instructive.  While the overall macro trend of the past year is unquestionably down, there have been significant spikes upwards and the current move up may not be over.  

Starting in July the 50DMA (blue line) has been acting as a resistance point, so perhaps VUZI can get back to that level again for those who are looking to get off the VUZI train.  But I know selling isn't easy, fear of missing out on something big is real, and besides...those who do sell, they need others to be bullish and buying.

I currently have no position in VUZI either long or short, so I don't have any skin in the game.  These are my genuine opinions, I have been following VUZI for more than a year now and I want to see how things ultimately play out, and I have to acknowledge (as I always do) that my opinions could be wrong.  So far my track record is pretty bang on, we'll see if that continues.

Peace.

The stock market isn't designed to make retail sheep rich...

I normally reserve general market commentary for Sundays, writing about the ways in which the market astounds and confounds, dazes and amazes, the fun and games that can thrill and chill retail investors.  

But every now and again I have an "Aha" moment, Christians will refer to it as an Epiphany.  However there's nothing religious about my latest "AHA".  Although it does have a similarity in that people will often come to a religious revelation, then it will drift away, they will forget about it.  But then it will come back yet again, sometimes over and over.  

The revelation that keeps coming back to this writer again and again, is how the stock market is not in any way designed to make lowly retail investors rich.  While I'm certain there are many individuals dreaming of quick riches from the stock market, I would bet proverbial dollars against donuts that only an incredibly small number will ever succeed.

Do you know someone who's made a fortune from the markets?  I don't, and I'll bet you don't either.  I'm not talking about on-line here, I mean someone in the real world.  There are always Nostradamus types in the virtual world, telling you of the fortunes they've made, and offering to help you do the same.  But you don't actually know them.  Do you?

Is it even possible to for a small retail investor to make mind blowing gains?  Can an individual take a few thousand dollars and parlay it into hundreds of thousands or millions?  I do think its possible, but I also think it is incredibly rare.  I would bet that you're more likely to have first hand knowledge of someone who had a big lottery win, as opposed to someone who bought their dream house from trading or investing in stocks.

I think it was Plato who used to say that the way to understand things was to first understand their opposite.  So in trying to understand how it might be possible to achieve great wealth from the market, I think its important to first understand why its nearly impossible to do so.

And I'm going to suggest, no make that assert.  I am going to assert that the reason why its so hard is because that's not the way the market game is designed.

First consider the players involved.  Let's start with the stocks that typically make the largest percentage gains, the companies whose share prices double, triple and sometimes go up ten fold or more in a very short period of time.  I think it will prove instructive to start at the bottom and work our way up.

I'm not talking about companies like the Apples or the FaceBooks here, or the Amazons and Googles.  I'm talking about highly speculative companies that are losing money, often bucket loads.  It is with highly speculative stocks that you'll most often see monster gains, and that includes Penny Stocks of course. 

Often with highly speculative public companies you will see that their CEO is earning a handsome salary, hundreds of thousands of dollars and sometimes even over $1 million.  This despite the fact that the business itself has an accumulated deficit in the tens of millions, sometimes hundreds of millions.  How can the CEO of a company that is losing money by the bucket full pull in a 6 or 7 figure compensation package?  

How is it managed?  Simple, its a public company.  The company is able to pay the CEO and other key executives big money because investors believe in the future and are willing to hand over cash in exchange for an ownership position.  But the CEO and other executives don't do this on their own of course.  You're not going to see someone wearing an Armani suit standing on a street corner flogging shares in his company, that wouldn't look too good.

No, retail investors aren't getting their shares directly.  Before being offered to the public there's a few steps in between.  Typically a brokerage firm that engages in investor banking services will serve as an underwriter, perhaps more than one.  We'll call our company "Money Losing Industries" or MLI for short.  Their stock is trading at we'll say $1.50 and they're soon to be broke, having just lost $5 million over the last 3 months.  

A large underwriter we'll call "We Love Crap" or WLC for short, steps in and underwrites a 20 million share offering priced at $1.00 per share, they might even bring in other firms to participate with WLC acting as the lead underwriter.  Now the company has $20 million less fees to fund operations, and to pay those big pay envelopes with.  

Am I suggesting that MLI is a scam company?  Nope, far from it.  They could have offices and production facilities for a tech innovation, perhaps even warehousing.  Its not a shell game, they have a real product and real sales, they just don't make any money at their business.  

So now the lead underwriter WLC and its team have 20 million shares to sell.  Are you ready to buy yet retail sheep?  Not so fast.  Before they make their way to the herd WLC and the other underwriters are first going to call on their book.  By book I mean their investor clients, they'll get first crack.  So now a bunch of brokers are calling their customers and they're talking up MLI as a great investment.  These customers are not basement dwelling losers trading on-line with a discount brokerage.  No sir.  These are well heeled professionals who employ the services of industry professionals to buy and sell shares.

And those that do buy in aren't going to be taking a flyer on a few hundred or even a few thousand shares.  At bare minimum they're going to be buying in blocks of 10,000....some will buy 100K or more.  Pikers don't get the benefit of using the services of a full service brokerage house.

Back in the days of the tech bubble some firms engaged in a practice that was called laddering.  Investors buying into an offering had to agree to buy a specified number of shares after their initial purchase.  First they might buy for 50,000 shares, but when doing so they had to agree to buy another 25,000 shares within say 6 months.  It was a great way to ensure a steady flow of buy side demand which would help inflate the PPS.

Okay, back to our lowly retail investors now.  Are you ready to start snapping up those $1 shares of MLI yet?  Of course they're not trading for $1 anymore, that's what the underwriters paid....and they got them at a discount of 50 cents to the market price.  But they've stirred up some activity and interest from their books and now the PPS has climbed over $2.  

But wait.  How's a retail investor to know about MLI anyway?  Down in the basement the Cell Phone reception is spotty at best, and besides....what Boo Radley type has a broker who's going to call.  I'm glad you asked. There are any number of ways it could happen, it might even be on a TV show.  It all depends on how big a profile Money Losing Industries has.  With the stock having moved from $1.50 to over $2 its very possible that there's some mainstream media attention, maybe even a CNBC.  

Now the herd moves in, and if its a perfect storm it can get exciting.  The stock price starts exploding, from $2 to $3....blowing past $4 and going over $5.  The underwrites have made a nice buck, but then they have big expenses.  Their customers who were able to get in early are happy as pigs rolling in their own excrement, providing they cashed in. Now its the retail sheep clawing all over each other, touting their genius on twitter and facebook and stock centered social media sites.

Of course it will end, and it won't end well.

Not for the retail sheep who've now bought into the idea that MLI is going to be a big winner.  Someone who pays $10 for this stock that was recently at just $1.50....he's thinking $20 is a sure thing, and that maybe even $100 is possible.  He might not have even bothered to read one single filing and might not even be aware that this company burned through $5 million in losses in the MRQ.

Man this is going to be a long entry, but what the heck, I'm enjoying myself.  For every 10 people who started reading this, I bet there's only one left now.  No matter.  

But wait wait wait I hear a smart retailer saying.  What if someone got in back before all this happened, when MLI was still trading for $1.50.....Doesn't he have a chance to make money?

Yes, yes he does.  But let me ask you....how much money did this wise individual invest?

Let's say this gutsy player bought 10,000 shares at $1.50 for a total investment of $15,000.....This retail genius bought in when things were quiet, when the PPS was treading water and volumes were very light.  He had the chance to read the financials without fear of the PPS running away while he did his research.  He knows this company lost $5 million in the MRQ but risked $15,000 in cold hard cash anyway.  

I won't say this guy doesn't exist, but he found a company that was quiet and wasn't being promoted and he got incredibly lucky.  The question now is, at what price should he sell?  We'll say that TMI's top price is $12 before it starts the long painful road back down.  So our genius early investor is going to watch it climb from $1.50 all the way to $12....but maybe he'll sell half his shares, we'll say at $6....that's 5,000 shares turned in for $30,000....he's already ahead.  

But what's he going to think when the PPS hits $10.  Is he going to congratulate himself on the $30,000 he has sitting in his account?  Or is he going to cry over the $50,000 he could have had instead if he'd waited just a little longer.  Is he going to read about predictions of the PPS going to $20 and buy back in again?

This is why its so hard for retail investors to make life changing gains in the stock market in my view.  The game is designed to lure the sheep in AFTER the big gains have been made.  And even those lucky enough to have bought in before mind blowing gains, they have to battle a psychological war geared totally toward getting them to hold on tight, and to even buy more.  

And I would further argue that this is the way it has to be.  The companies paying the big salaries, the firms underwriting the share offerings, the media outlets big and small catering to retail investors....combined we're talking about a multi billion dollar industry, and those dollars have to come from somewhere.

I'll leave it there and see if anyone cares to comment.  But anyone telling me they've made huge money on the market, they can get bent.  If they have they're not going to be reading this practically invisible little blog.

Cheers. 

Resverlogix - Lots happenng but not with the PPS (RVX.TO - RVXCF)

Its been almost a month since I've written about Resverlogix, which represents a significant holding in my portfolio and is my single largest highly speculative investment.  I think that should cover off disclosure, obviously my opinions and thoughts should be considered in that light.  

My last posting on Resverlogix was Oct 7th 2017, after RVX.TO had climbed about 24% in one week.  At the end of that post I did take note of how the chart indicated an overbought technical situation that, barring some positive news, could very well lead to the stock either stalling or pulling back.

Well, RVX pulled back and is now sitting at $1.30, a support level it was at as far back as June.  So far that support is holding, and I am hopeful that the PPS will rebound higher.  That however is a hope and far from a prediction.  Resverlogix as an investment comports a lot, and I do mean A LOT....a lot of risk.

In reading over my last entry, I have to say I was pretty brutal in my depiction of the company, in particular over corporate communications.  I lamented a number of simple and, in my view, incredibly stupid mistakes.  I mused about whether they were the result of incompetence or the company being in utter disarray.  Or possibly even both.  

Here's the link: http://www.avoidthebag.com/2017/10/rvxto-climbs-24-in-one-week-despite.html

I have to wonder whether that simple blog post actually had an effect on the company.  I had noted that the company had skipped out on two investor presentations, first in Paris and then in NYC.  The company gave no notification because, according to my conversation with the VP of IR, the fact that they were posted to the company's website did not constitute "wide dissemination".  

How, in this day and age, one could consider that something posted to the World Wide Web is not being widely disseminated is beyond my comprehension.  However it seems that  the company may have come to that same conclusion as well finally.  

They are no longer posting upcoming events on the website, but rather are notifying shareholders and anyone else with News Releases.  I don't want to take credit for this change, but I think it would be naive to discount the possibility that this blog might have had an impact.  

But enough digressing.  The subject line of this entry says there's lots happening, and there is.  

On October 13th the company announced an $87 million Private Placement with their second largest shareholder, Chinese Pharmaceutical company Shenzhen Hepalink.  Hepalink is probably best known for the sale of  Heparin Sodium API both in China and internationally, a blood thinner that is used to prevent blood clots in the veins, arteries and lungs.  

https://www.resverlogix.com/media/news-releases.html?article=583#.Wf6pjmhSzIU

This is significant because the company says they plan to use the lions share of the proceeds to retire an outstanding loan that is coming due before the end of the year.  If that loan were to be defaulted on it would be disastrous in my opinion because the loan is secured by a standby letter of credit with the company's largest shareholder Eastern Capital.  That stand by letter of credit is in turn collateralized by pretty much all the company's intellectual property.  In other words, default on the loan and in my view...the company might as well close up shop.

However the loan has yet to receive regulatory approval.  In order to be exempt from a requirement for minority shareholder approval the company has requested an exemption based on financial hardship.  Whether that exemption will be be granted is something that still represents an unknown. 

The next bit of news came out just 11 days later, announcing that Shenzhen Hepalink subsidiary Hepalink U.S.A had paid $8 million for a right of first refusal agreement with respect to the right to manufacture, develop and commercialize products containing Apabetalone until April 15, 2019.

https://www.resverlogix.com/media/news-releases.html?article=584#.Wf6sUmhSzIU

This is significant because, well quite simply the company is, (in my opinion and based on all the publicly available info I can find) in desperate need of capital.  They have after all asked for a regulatory exemption based on financial hardship.  According to various slide presentations they're burning somewhere between $3 and $4 million each month.  $8 million is only enough for two or three months, but it might bridge a gap to a more significant financing deal.  As I said almost right off the bat here, Resverlogix has a lot of significant risk factors and I don't like to sugar coat things.

It hasn't even been a month and yet there is still more news.  On November 1st, just this past Wednesday, the company announced they had received a 5th positive recommendation from the Data Safety Monitoring Board for their Phase III clinical trial of Apabetalone called BETonMACE.  

https://www.resverlogix.com/media/news-releases.html?article=585#.Wf6u4mhSzIU

I view this news as being highly significant.  And were it not for the financial constraints and risks, I think this news might otherwise have resulted in a sizable increase in the PPS.  Data Safety Monitoring Boards can recommend halting a clinical trial, due to reasons of safety, efficacy or both.  That happened with Pfizer's CETP inhibitor Torcetrapib back in 2006:  

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnlamattina/2017/10/17/the-blockbuster-that-wasnt-a-cetp-inhibitor-post-mortem/#26f3ceb5672f

And finally, the last bit of news that came out this past Thursday November 2nd.  The company announced upcoming conferences they are scheduled to attend:  

https://www.resverlogix.com/media/news-releases.html?article=586#.Wf68LWhSzIU

In other words, lots is happening....just not with the share price.  Ironically when things were quieter with lots of reason for Fear Uncertainty and Doubt, the PPS was climbing.  Now with much more news to chew on, and especially with the 5th positive recommendation from the DSMB, now the PPS is languishing.  

As a final note, while that last blog post coincided with the technical picture being overbought and signalling a potential pull back (which did in fact happen), this time around the technical picture is decidedly oversold and signalling a potential climb for the PPS.

Comments welcome.