Vuzix - Does fundamental performance even matter? (VUZI)

Over on stocktwits where I post with the username "growacet" I made a comment about $VUZI and was asked by another participant:  "Where's the pump"??

I should probably thank "wallstpirate" because he provided me with some fodder for something to write about.  I've been posting less than usual here at ATB after all, and inspiration is always welcomed.

So...where's the pump with Vuzix?  Where do I begin?

Let's start with smallcapnation.com which discloses an expectation of $15,000 from a third party for increasing awareness of VUZI.  Here's the link disclaiming the compensation:

http://www.smallcapnation.com/vuzix-corporation-vuzi-disclaimer/

Then there's Tailwindsresearch.com which has published 20 bullish articles distributed both on their site and at SeekingAlpha.com  If you're looking for several hours of bullish sounding material on Vuzix, fill your boots:  http://tailwindsresearch.com/vuzix/

Their disclaiming statement says they "may have been compensated" with the usual boiler plate language about their write ups being for informational purposes only etc.  You can read it all here:

http://tailwindsresearch.com/disclaimer/

I could go on and on of course, ceolive.com, integraconsulting.com and more but I think readers get the point.  Bearish short side website thestreetsweeper.org asserts that at least 21 professional campaigns have been used to promote Vuzix.

http://www.thestreetsweeper.org/undersurveillance/Vuzix_Corp___VUZI___Let_The_Caterwauling_Begin

All the promotion, pump and hype is fine of course, but the important question is....What does it all mean?  What it means is that Vuzix is showing up on a lot of radar screens, investors who might otherwise have never heard about this company have been introduced to it.

Nowhere on any of these sites however do I see the writers advising potential investors to read over the company's SEC filings, except perhaps buried in the disclaiming statements, typically using a nice small font.  

But then, do the fundamentals even matter when a company is relying on pump and promotion to attract investors?  Promoters always talk about the future, that's what investing is ultimately all about of course.  I have little doubt that the AR space is going to be big, just like there was little doubt that web based commerce was going to be big back in 2000.  

There were some heavily pumped and promoted stocks back then too, Pets.Com springs to mind and others like Digiscents might ring a few bells for those who are older.  For every amazon and netflix that made it big there were hundreds that simply rode the wave of excitement, their stocks were hyped up and the printing press churned out shares as buyers couldn't get enough tech.

Is Vuzix using a printing press?  Are they constantly printing more and more shares?  Judge for yourself.  Back in February of 2013 the company did a 1 for 75 share consolidation.  Simply put, shareholders got one share for every 75 they owned.  Someone who owned 75,000 before the reverse took place had 1,000 afterwards.

You can read about it here:  http://ir.vuzix.com/press-releases/detail/584/vuzix-announces-reverse-stock-split

Of course that was over 4 years ago now.  What has happened since?  If you check the 10Q filing for the period ending March 31st 2013 you'll see that the number of shares outstanding was 3,536,856 as of May 15 2013.  If you don't want to be bothered looking up the filing yourself here's the link so you can verify the numbers: 

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=9299013&RcvdDate=5/15/2013&CoName=VUZIX%20CORP&FormType=10-Q&View=html

Fast forward to the most recently available filing, the 10Q for the period ending March 31st 2017 and you'll see that the number of outstanding shares has ballooned to almost 20.5 million, 20,408,926 to be precise as of May 10th 2017.

Here's the link to that filing:   

http://secfilings.nasdaq.com/filingFrameset.asp?FilingID=12056450&RcvdDate=5/10/2017&CoName=VUZIX%20CORP&FormType=10-Q&View=html

That's an increase of 16,872,070 shares in four years.  That would have been over 1.2 billion more shares if not for the 1:75 reverse split and represents and increase of  477%.  If Vuzix keeps it up, at this rate they'll be pushing 100 million shares within the next 4 years.  100 million is a bit problematic, because according to their filings that's the amount they're authorized to issue.  But if they ring the bell again they could always do another big reverse split I assume.

But in the near to medium term it might not matter.  There are lots of companies that get pumped and promoted.  CYNK communications is one of my favorites, it went from a nickel to over $20 despite $0 revenues and having only one employee.  CYNK billed themselves as a social media company, in spite of not even having a website.  It didn't matter though, and it proves that no matter how bad a company is, if the promotion is good...there are always fools around willing to pay an inflated price.

That's it for now.....I might get a few comments, so I'll remind haters that profanity is verboten here. And I'll also disclose the fact that I have no position in VUZI long or short, so no skin in the game whatsoever.  If I do take out a position however I can state with near 100% certainty that it will be on the short side.

The next quarterly filing should be out soon, and we'll know how much more money was lost and how much higher the accumulated deficit has climbed.  And of course how many more shares were printed.  

Peace out.

MYDX and NBEV - Admitting bad calls....

I haven't been shy about patting myself on the back here when I've written a bullish opinion on a stock that then goes on to make substantial gains.  I've had a number of successes.

The Bullish Calls

I first wrote about LAC.TO at $0.75 CDN and it is now trading for $1.06....I long ago took profits on that stock at lower prices than where its trading now, and when that happens I simply cry into the money I made.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/04/lithium-americas-cup-and-handle-forming.html

EGT.V is one I wrote about at 14 Canadian pennies.  I bailed on it after doubling my money but its still trading up around 25 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/the-lure-of-clean-energy-eguana.html

HMPR, which is now trading as XBKS after a merger is one I'm particularly happy about, and while I have taken profits by selling some shares its one I continue to like and have maintained a position in.
It was trading at a split adjusted price of $18.10 when I first wrote about it here, now its at $26.50 after pulling back from as high as $30.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/hampton-roads-bankshares-hmpr-great.html

RVX.TO is a stock I first wrote about here when it was trading around $1.30 CDN, its currently at $1.75 after getting up around $2.50 in October and is one I still continue to both like and hold, however fully ackowledging that it is extremely high risk in my view.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/resverlogix-phase-iii-clinical-trial.html

ACU.V written about at .16 cents now at .185 is one I doubled down on when it fell to 10 cents.  I took some profits when I climbed up over 20 cents, but I still am maintaining a position and still think there's much more upside potential.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/07/the-lure-of-green-energy-aurora-solar.html

In October I expressed a bullish opinion on RMHB when it was trading around .036 cents American. Now it has climbed to .092....it is another one where I'll have to cry into the money I made, bailing on it after a 50% profit.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/hemp-infused-beverages-intriguing-idea.html

KUB.V has been a monster, I wrote about it in October as well when it was 2 cents...and now its settled in around 6 cents after trading as high as 7.5 pennies CDN.  Its one I continue to hold, in fact I just added to the position I started at 2.5 cents by buying more at 6 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/an-intriguing-penny-play-kubv-ukranian.html

Not too bad at all, and I'm leaving out more recent gainers like Emblem Corp.

Of course not all my calls were long plays.  I did express bearish views at times when I thought some stocks were bubbling up on nothing more than Promotion, News and Hype.

The Bearish Calls
I wrote a few bearish opinions on ZIOP starting last May when that stock was trading in and around $7 to $8 per share, now its sitting around $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ziopharm-wall-street-sting.html

I did a couple posts on KTOV also in May when that stock was trading up around $6.60 per, now its fallen all the way to around $3.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ktov-what-just-happened.html

And then there's VUZI when it was up at $8.81 on its way to almost $10.  Now its fallen all the way back to $6.40

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/09/vuzix-time-machine-back-to-tech-bubble.html

And finally my very recent bearish thoughts on NF.CN from November when it was up around 25 Canadian pennies and on its way to being promoted to over 30 cents.  Its now trading for 11 or 12 cents and in my opinion on its way back to .02 cents eventually.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/message-board-fun-and-games-with.html

But enough of the successful calls, I didn't get them all right last year and I am sure I will get some wrong in the future.  Two opinions I expressed were particularily bad, one long idea and one short.

MYDX is a company I wrote about this past November and one I took a position out in.  When I wrote about the PPS was trading for 2.2 cents, and I bought into at .0144 as revealed in the comments. Its most recent closing price was .0021 for a drop of over 80%.  Ouch!!!  Thankfully it was a small position, and I followed my own advice in that post and only risked money I could afford to lose.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/mydx-another-way-to-play-marijuana-space.html

I will continue to hold MYDX (the symbol and company name are one and the same).  The company is forecasting profitability in the near future, I'm not going to hold my breath however.  A good recipe for going broke in my opinion is to believe the forward looking bullish outlooks on penny stocks. I've already booked some solid capital gains in 2017 and losses can come in handy at tax time, even if the dollar amount is small.

The bearish short opinion was expressed on NBEV, back when it was trading under the symbol ABRW.  I wrote about that stock in June of last year when it was trading up around $1.75 cents after already made a huge jump from as low as .20 cents in February and March.  Today its trading up around $4.20 and has been as high as $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/abrw-great-example-of-stock-promotion.html

My opinion on NBEV hasn't changed for the long term, but I have to admit I was wrong.  The ultimate arbiter in the market is price, and I thought NBEV had been pumped up near its limits in June, so I was incredibly wrong on that one as well.

When I get it right I'm not shy about sharing my success, but that means I have to take ownership of those views and opinions I get wrong too.  Some social media posters talk with extreme confidence when pumping and bashing stocks because they know sheep will follow strength, and admitting to past failures or the possibility that a call could be wrong, well that doesn't inspire confidence, and pumpers and bashers in my opinion (one that is often not humble) is that most are industry hacks.

Professional market players infest social media sites where stocks are discussed, that's opinion but for me its not up for debate.  The way I see things they are manipulators and bullies, trying to dominate the herd so as to shepherd the sheep into the stocks they're dumping, or out of the ones they want to accumulate.

I'll end this post here and wish everyone luck.  I will also once again cite those two maxims that I think are of critical importance to retail investors.  Firstly that nobody has ever gone broke from taking profits, and secondly that if you sell a stock and then see it continue climbing even higher, before buying back in cry into the money you made and think again about that first maxim.

Cheers.

Are shares of Lithium X Energy "Jumping the Shark"? (LIX.V - LIXXF)

For those unfamiliar with the term "Jumping The Shark" it comes from a TV show called "Happy Days" that aired between 1974 and 1984.  Even if you're under 40 you've probably at least heard of it.

The most popular character on the show was 'The Fonz', a tough guy mechanic with a soft heart and a way with the ladies.  All he had to do was snap his fingers and girls came running.  When he wanted to play a song on the Juke Box he just gave it a rap with a closed fist.  Here's a YouTube video which shows why Fonzie was so cool:

Happy Days was a top rated show.  The most watched episode involved the Fonz jumping garbage cans with his motorcycle.  Nothing lasts forever and after a few seasons ratings started falling.  So the producers decided to try the same ploy again, but instead of jumping garbage cans with his motorcycle, this time Fonzie jumped a shark on waterskis while on vacation in California.

While the show got a temporary boost it didn't last.  Ratings continued falling and the show was eventually cancelled.  And from that time forward the term "Jumping The Shark" has come to signify a last ditch effort that ultimately fails.

So why do I ask if Lithium X Energy is "Jumping The Shark"?

I have started getting email blasts from "The Outsider Club" that are touting an investment in Lithium X (LIX.V or LIXXF OTC).  The author is Nick Hodge and here's what it says about Lithium X at the end of the latest email:  

• It’s gone up several thousand percent in the past six months. And I think it can do it again. It’s putting a project into production in South America, owns the largest lithium land package in Nevada, and has the best management and board I can find in the space.
• It also still trades with a tiny market cap of $100 million.
• If you’d like to see my full report on the lithium sector, what to avoid, and all the details on my tiny top pick… just click this link.
• Call it like you see it,                                                                                                                Nick Hodge

Call it like I see it?  Okay....I will.

Firstly LIX is not up several thousand percent in the past 6 months, that's a falsehood right off the bat Mr. Hodge.  Lithium X put out a PR announcing the commencement of trading of LIX on the Canadian Venture Exchange on November 30th 2015.  The stock initially raised at 15 cents and opened at double that, 30 cents.

For those lucky enough to get in on the initial 15 cent raise that equals an eye popping gain of over 1,300% by my calculations...That's incredible, so why overstate things? It did not go up "several thousand percent"???   Right off the bat that might be enough to send potential investors running if Mr. Hodge's email is their first introduction to this company.  Who would listen to a guy so lacking in basic math skills.

And secondly, while its great to say it could go up several percent more....responsible market professionals do not ignore the risks, and the fact is that LIX investors buying at current levels could also lose some or all of their investment.  I'm not saying LIX will fall signficcantly, merely that it could.

Then there's the bit about putting a project "into production" in South America.  Uhm, not exactly. As per a Press Release put out by the company on July 20th, the company doesn't even have construction permits for pilot ponding facilities.  In fact investors are still waiting for an updated resource estimate on that proposed mine.  Production, if it comes, is still years away.

I don't want to go on too much about email blasting stock promotional outfits, they are what they are. If you're sufficiently intrigued you can research this Outsider Group outfit yourself and see if you can find some penny stock they promoted that actually went on to deliver long term shareholder value....If you do leave a comment, I haven't been able to find one yet.  

That's not to say companies promoted by Outsider Club haven't gone on wild rides.

Stellar Biotechnologies is probably as good an example as any of the penny stocks this Outsider Group has promoted.  SBOT saw its PPS pumped up to a split adjusted (a 1:10 consolidation)  $20+ per share from just $2 - $5 and now its back down under $3....that's 20-50 cents pumped to $2+ adjusting for the reverse split.

Besides, there are other promotional efforts being employed to attract investors to risk money on LIX.V or LIXXF OTC.  Oilprice.com is also playing up the Tesla angle, suggesting that the nascent electric car company is scrambling to lock up as much of the Lithium supply as possible.

Whether its oilprice.com or outsiderclub or any other promotional outfit I strongly suggest reading the disclaimer statements, usually there's a link at the very bottom of the web page.

Now regular readers (the huge multitude of devoted Avoid The Bag fans, both of them) know that I view some promotion as being part and parcel of development stage companies, it comes with the territory.  Cash strapped prospective businesses need to raise capital to execute a business plan. There are a number of options of course, they can raise money privately, attempt to secure bank loans or seek out so called "Angel Investors".

And then of course there's the public markets, and it can be hard for a small company long on dreams but short on capital to get noticed.  So some promotion is to be expected.  

So do I think Lithium X is "jumping the shark"?  I do.

Beyond the promotional effort and email blasting Lithium X is also popping up on Google Ads on a lot of sites I visit.  I assume its because of all the searching for stories on both investing and Lithium that I do. The ads take you Lithium X's website and a recent Press Release. 

For me its that old line about a market needing buyers and sellers  The stock market is ultimately a zero sum game, buyers get shares and sellers get cash.  When I see a lot of activity designed to entice people to buy shares I have to ask myself who the sellers are....and if maybe they're the smart ones.

Call it the canary in the coal mine, or the shoeshine boy analogy.  When I start seeing a stock getting promoted and profiled almost EVERYWHERE....my Spidey Sense starts tingling.  JFK's father Joe was lucky to get out the stock market before the big crash....When asked about it later he claimed he knew it was time to cash out when a kid shining his shoes started suggesting to buy certain stocks.  

Do note though....I'm using the present tense with the verb "jumping".  I do believe that there is likely some more upside from current levels for shares of Lithium X Energy.  As with the shark jump on Happy Days, there was a ratings boost that came from putting Fonzie on water-skis and sending him through the air with Jaws waiting if he failed.  

It would have been easier to write something like this after waiting to see if LIX.V - LIXXF trades significantly lower in the coming weeks and months.  Then I could have said...."back then, in the summer....that's when shares of Lithium X "jumped" the shark"....but that's boring and too easy. Trying to predict what's coming is more fun.

Ultimately and longer term I think somewhere around $2.50 to $3.00 will prove to be a high water mark as dilution in my opinion will play a big part in weighing down the share price. 

Longer term though, based on their properties and management experience....I do actually think they have a chance to make a go of things.  In another two or three years, 2018/2019 if they are able to clear the many hurdles they'll undoubtedly face.....then I think they could bring a working mine or mines into actual production.  In the interim though I expect shares of Lithium X whether traded on the Canadian Venture or in the U.S. OTC....in my opinion its going to be a roller coaster ride. 

And if the company does bring a working mine to production, then I think those who've been buying LIX.V (CDN) for $2+ currently, that they might end up being lucky to just break even.  

Good luck

Sunday thoughts - Beware when a stock becomes a religion....

The world is evolving, or perhaps devolving....depending on your point of view.  

I'm finding more and more people insist on viewing things in absolute terms, as being right or wrong, black or white, good or bad.  It doesn't matter if its politics, religion, or even stocks.  Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, a lot of people insist on seeing one as a saint and the other as the devil.  A particular faith or denomination is either on the side of God or its in league with Satan.  And with publicly traded companies the same dynamic plays out, stocks are either awesome or garbage for some people.

I write a lot about the lessons my late great father taught me from his days working on both Bay and Wall Streets, blending in my own experiences working in the financial services industry. Dad taught me things like: "Don't marry a stock, especially those that are purely speculative".  And "You'll never go broke taking profits".  

My Dad was a great teacher.  But so was my late great mother.

Back in my teenage years I was drawn into a particular faith group.  How?  Uhm, I think her name was Tanya.  It wasn't a total shift from the religious upbringing of my youth, but this was an evangelical bunch  and they knew for certain the path to salvation and eternal life, or so they claimed at least.

My Mother didn't discourage me from attending their worship services or their activities.  Her only advice was to maintain what she called a "healthy bias".  Mom was a smart woman.  If she had forbidden me from participating, or made a big deal of it....Who knows?  I might just be on a street corner somewhere testifying, or maybe on TV using my faith to heal the sick and afflicted.  

I came to hold the view that on some points they were right, others I didn't agree with....and a lot of it, I was in between and unsure.  In my experience that's a healthy view, and I find it takes strength to admit that you don't have all the answers.  Only idiots are convinced they know everything.  

Now to bring this back to stocks.

There are many social media participants who approach investments with the fervour of a religious zealot.  There are posters to various sites who certainly view Ziopharm this way.  That's what I found when I did my first Seeking Alpha blog post on Ziopharm in 2015 expressing the opinion that at $13+ it represented a speculative bubble:  A Speculative Bubble Poised To Collapse?  

When I published that I was roasted by the faithful in the comment section.  I quickly found out what Galileo must have felt like when he dared to publish his theory that the Earth rotated around the Sun, or Scopes for teaching Darwin's theory of evolution.  I was a heretic.  

Why did one opinion cause so much consternation?  

In some cases I think its merely nervous shareholders who lack confidence in their investment, feeling a need to defend their position from any and all perceived attacks.  But in other cases I think the reasons are more insidious, with professional industry players looking to stir up as much buying as possible so sellers can get the best possible prices for the maximum number of shares being dumped.

I've seen the same thing with ABRW lately, anyone who doesn't buy into the forward looking promise is attacked.  

And its not just pumpers who are desperate to convert the great unwashed, so called "bashers" are no better. They're often desperate to convince others that they are stock market experts who never make a mistake when they tell others to dump a stock.

There's one joker on Twitter who plays both sides, alternately pumping with abandon and then bashing like crazy.  Joe Natural with the handle @ChinaStockPro was trashing RLYP repeatedly, posting negative comments with a youtube video of  a tree crashing to the ground: "TIMBERRRRR"!!!

 

JoeNatural‏@ChinaStockPro

$RLYP - oh my, only one word to describe investor faith in this management team's ability to execute

12:51 PM - 27 May 2016

0 retweets0 likes

How did RLYP do?  It's now trading at almost $32 after a buyout deal with Galenica for $1.2 billion in cash.  Back on May 27th it closed at less than $20 when Joe posted his bashing message. Obviously a massively bad call by Mr. Natural, unless of course he was playing that video in reverse.

Now this same false prophet and self proclaimed stock market expert is applying the same energy he used to bash RLYP and channelling it into pumping ABRW. We shall see how that works out.

Bottom line?  Be very wary of those who tell you they're never wrong.  If someone tells you they have the keys to the kingdom and you buy into their hype you might just get to heaven only to find that someone changed the locks.

Spotting the pumps easier than going long

This blog is not even three months old, and already I have managed to identify some stocks that, in my opinion, were inflated and due to come down.  Taking the PPS from my first write up on the following companies, here is how my bearish calls have performed as of this past Friday's close.

• May 8th  RYU.V   Down -18.9%
• May 5th  ZIOP     Down -27.2%
• May 17th KTOV   Down -54.9%
• June 12th ABRW  Up    +04.0%

My scorecard on bearish calls isn't perfect, but if ABRW does what I expect in the coming weeks and months, then I'll have to give myself an A+.  

As much as I'd like to pat myself on the back for my genius skills at sniffing out inflated stocks, it really wasn't that hard.  The way I see it this was all "low hanging fruit" so to speak.  Three out of those four companies, ZIOP, KTOV and ABRW were all hyped and promoted by an email blasting promotional outfit called StockReversals.  

I followed StockReversals long before I started this blog, and I've seen them pump a number of stocks that have all tanked.  In no particular order I've witnessed them pounding the proverbial table to drum up buyers for SBOT, MOBI, CLDN, LEJU and WBAI over the past 3+ years, touting long term value potential.  

If you want to check the charts on those stocks be my guest.  Those buying in expecting price appreciation over the long haul got creamed.  

RYU.V on the other hand was a stock I saw getting spammed all over a site popular for Canadian listed stocks, stockhouse.ca.  They'd just announced that Gwenyth Paltrow was going to promote their clothing line. I've seen so many celebrity endorsements for penny stock companies over the years, and have yet to see one deliver long term value to shareholders.

So why is identifying inflated stocks so much easier than finding companies with low share prices poised to make gains?

That's pretty easy to explain in my opinion.  Inflated stocks that are poised to drop big, they are SCREAMING for attention.  Why?  Simple....the smart money holders who want to sell need dumb money suckers to come in and pay the inflated price.  

Companies that are trading at or near their lows on the other hand, the good ones in my experience aren't experiencing heavy volume and don't have much in the way of news.  So it can be hit and miss trying to discern which ones might be good candidates.  

I have put out some bullish opinions on a couple that have born fruit though.  I wrote up EGT.V when it was 14 to 15 cents and it got up around 40 and is still trading in and around 28 to 30 cents.  And HMPR was at $1.81 when I expressed my reasons for being bullish and it just closed up over $1.90.

Hampton Road Bankshares is actually a company that I truly believe has the potential to deliver long term shareholder value.  That's not to say it is without risk, but to my eyes the fact that they are turning  a profit gives them a lower risk profile as compared to companies using their shares as capital to stay afloat.

Ultimately I think its every bit as important to know what to avoid as it is to know what to look for. Who wants to pay $6+ for a stock like KTOV only to have half your money wiped out in a matter of weeks.  

I've also mentioned some stocks that have come down, RVX.TO is one that I wrote about when it was trading at $1.34 and this past Friday it closed at $1.23 for a drop of 8.2%.   With RVX though I haven't seen any suspect pumping and table pounding all over social media....if that happens my opinion will change in all likelihood.  And if that does happen it might be reasonable to expect to see the PPS climbing well above even $1.34....only time will tell.  Ideally I'd like to see them succeed with the Phase III clinical trial.  

News Hype and Promotion boys and girls.  In my opinion that is the Unholy Trinity of the stock market that should be avoided.  Beware when something looks too tempting, things are not always as they appear.

A penny stock poised to make MASSIVE long term gains!!!

You've probably come here because you're tired of watching penny stocks take off for big gains and missing the boat.  Maybe you have a friend who bought a stock for something like 10 cents and then saw it explode to $1 or $2 allowing them to realize incredible profits of 1,000% or even higher.  

Wouldn't you like to be one of the players turning hundreds of dollars into thousands, thousands into tens of thousands, tens of thousands into hundreds of thousands....maybe even millions.

You're probably familiar with what is generally called a "pump and dump".  And its not just penny stocks, it can happen on more senior exchanges like the Nasdaq as well.  Hype and promotion are not exclusive to the OTC.  Typically you're looking at companies that have negative earnings, businesses with a history of using their shares to fund operations and for things like rent and to pay salaries.

But that's not what you're looking for.

• You want to "invest" in a solid company.  
• You want a low priced stock that you can tuck away in your portfolio without having to worry that one day the share price will collapse.  
• You want something stable that will deliver long term value.

If you're a momentum player, a penny flipper, someone who likes to catch onto pump and dumps with an eye to day trading for small percentage gains....GET LOST, THIS INFORMATION ISN'T FOR YOU!!!  

I am only interested in sharing this with genuine investors.  With people who are looking for a penny stock play with solid fundamental prospects for incredible gains and little to zero risk. I only want people who have a long term value perspective, even if it is just an OTC pink penny stock.

If that is you, then keep reading.

Are you ready for this information?  Are you salivating at the prospects of monster gains?  I won't make you wait any longer.....here it is.

YOU ARE A MORON, AN IDIOT, SOMEONE WITH MORE MONEY THAN BRAINS!!! YOU ARE, WITHOUT QUESTION, DUMBER THAN DIRT!!!

Do you really think someone is going to share information like this openly and freely on some pathetic blog or investor fourm?

If there is someone who knows about a penny stock that's going to explode, they're not gonna be looking for every Tom, Dick and Mary, giving this information away freely to anyone with a pulse and a trading account.

If someone knows about a 10 cent stock that's going to make monster gains they might let some close friends and family members in on it.  But they're not gonna start pumping and promoting it until they're ready to turn their shares into money by selling.  They'll keep mum until that time when they're looking to take those 10 cent shares and turn them into dollars, lots and lots of dollars.

My advice?  Grow a brain and come back to the markets when you're no longer a gullible fool.

Not convinced?  Still think you can search message boards, stock promotional sites, blogs and other social media outlets for hot trading ideas and find a solid OTC penny stock that will deliver incredible gains and long term value?  Well....you won't have to look too hard.   Click on those ads promising big gains, sign up for newsletters, troll some investor forums....it shouldn't take more than a few minutes.  

Before long you'll have an expert telling you all about some company with supposedly solid fundamentals that is pretty much a lead pipe cinch to be a big player in any number of industries.  It could be technology, a drug company, sports drinks, health food, retail, mining....you name it.

And anyone that dares to suggest its just some pump and dump....they'll be told "this one is different", that they don't understand the fundamentals.  They'll be accused of trying to talk the PPS down so they can buy cheap, or of being short.

Like carnies running the ring toss at your local county fair, stock promoters are looking for you long term players right now.  For people who think you can invest in an OTC Pink penny stock based on the prospect of forward looking fundamentals.  Don't let them down, and enjoy the comb.

ABRW - Too good to be true?

I first wrote about ABRW on June 12th 2016:

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/abrw-great-example-of-stock-promotion.html

In that post I included the chart which showed ABRW at $1.75.  That was just after it had traded up around $2, a 52 week high, having climbed from lows around just 20 cents as recently as February and March of this year.

Well, it seems there's some more promotional effort at work, and I have to say, it looks good. Seeking Alpha contributor John H. Ford just put up a blog posting on July 8th claiming that Bucha is a $7 stock for his nearly 2,000 followers.  It was also shared on his Twitter account where he has over 3,700 following him.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/592211-john-h-ford/4897637-bucha-1-stock-now-worth-7

Not bad eh!!!  How often do you get to buy something that's worth $7 but only have to pay $2?  Man, that's like someone offering to sell you a 2016 Dodge Challenger for just $10,000 instead of the regular price of $30,000+.  I bet these cheap shares are gonna disappear pretty quick.  What idiots would be selling something for $2 or less when its worth $7?

You know what they say though....when something sounds to good to be true, it usually is.  So what's the deal with $ABRW?  Did those who sold over 100,000 shares today at prices ranging from $1.81 - $2.05....did they just get hosed?  Or did they do well to take the cash?  According to Mr. Ford's blog the shares are now worth $7, that's not stated as opinion, its presented as fact.  Did today's sellers not get the memo? 

Okay....what's up.  Why would someone say a stock trading around $2 is worth $7 if they're buying? Its seems to me that's the kind of thing you say when you're looking to sell.  People will buy lots of things (often worthless) if they can be convinced they're screwing the seller.  

"I hate to let this car go for $5,000 because its worth at least $10,000...maybe even $15,000....but I have no choice, I'm leaving the country in two days".  You've probably seen or heard of ads like this on Craig's List. 

Bucha is an OTC listed company trading on the pink sheets with the symbol ABRW.  Its been getting a fair bit of hype lately as mentioned in my earlier posts.  Pictures of Bucha's drinks have been popping up on twitter, someone even snapped a pic of them in a shopping cart.

buchador ‏@buchador_nyc  18h

18 hours ago

@buchalive $abrw - Sunday night shopping getting ready for the work week. This should do it. #buchador

2 retweets6 likes

Obviously Bucha is a real company, no question about that.  It reminds me somewhat of when Tiger Woods put energy drink Fuse "on his bag" and did a CNBC interview about his new endorsement deal.  A lot of people stormed into Fuse Science's stock after that, pushing that OTC Pinkie stock to dollars.  The symbol for Fuse Science is DROP, which is fitting.  Just check what its trading for now and you'll understand why.

Nortel also springs to mind, many investors bought into that debacle because, seeing the phone they used at work sporting the Nortel logo, they knew it was real.  Unfortunately what Nortel was "real" good at was losing money, and at accounting irregularities.

Of course after so many scandals with companies like Nortel, Enron and Worldcom to name just three....more stringent regulations were brought in with the Sarbanes-Oxley act of 2002.  The act is designed to give investors more confidence in the financial data public companies release to shareholders and prospective investors.

Companies that trade in the United States on the NYSE, Nasdaq and OTC must conform to the act, typically referred to as Sab-Ox.  Only companies with stocks trading OTC Pink are exempt.  Oooops.

Okay....but what is ABRW saying and why do guy's like Mr. Ford assert that buying ABRW around $2 is a steal, like that vehicle on Craig's List being given away at a fraction of its real value?

Its because of their acquisition of New Age Beverages and Xing Tea.  The press release touts the acquisition as being a "$50 million+ new business combination".  Mr. Ford's blog claims that New Age is generating $50 million annually.  I assume that to be a revenue figure, but I don't know where to verify it.  New Age, was a private company....not even a pink sheet listed one.  As such they are not required to file financial statements like 10Qs and 10Ks....not even unaudited ones like ABRW.

I remember my late great father telling me about the 3 kinds of lies that exist.  Lies, damn lies, and accounting.

I know this blog is going to get trashed.  Pumpers don't like being called out....and that's what I think is going on here, and that's what I'm doing, I'm calling BS here.  In my opinion this is just yet another OTC hype job.  

Don't agree?  Hey....fill your boots, load up on as many shares as you can afford, I'm not here to tell anyone how to play the markets, I'm just an old retail investor expressing his views on a  blog.  Read my disclaimer. If you really believe ABRW is a steal, then share this blog everywhere you can.....maybe you can buy even more and get the shares cheaper, like talking down the house you want to buy....Only an idiot raves about something they're buying, that just makes the sellers more reluctant and gets them asking for higher prices.

In my opinion this is a classic pump, and often times they work.  Dumpers get lots of cash and buyers get lots of inflated shares, its a zero sum game boys and girls.  

Disclosure:  I have no position in ABRW long or short and no intention of ever initiating one.

ABRW - A sure fire winner or just another OTC hype job

So, is ABRW a slam dunk guarantee to go up from current levels?

Of course not, only complete morons would suggest that any stock comports zero risk, especially an OTC penny stock.  Well maybe not just morons, there might be some sharpies out there who are hoping to get potential marks....uhm, I mean investors, to completely ignore any potential downside.

When it comes to investing there are tons of people out there who will throw money at a good story, without being aware of the potential risks involved.  A great example would be Fuse Science Energy drinks a few years back.  When Tiger Woods signed on with them many thought it was a sure winner. 

If you want to check how its doing now just look up it up, fittingly it trades with the symbol DROP because that's exactly what the share price did.  Once worth dollars it now trades for less than one single penny.  (QUOTE FOR FUSE SCIENCE)

Know the risks people.  I will share a video from the Simpsons, one where Homer jumps into stock ownership when he is blown away by a presentation done by a company called Animotion.

Is that you?  Thinking only of the possible rewards and completely ignoring the risks?

So what are the risks?  If you came across ABRW via social media or from an email blast you might think there are none, that an investment in Búcha Inc is a sure fire rocket trip to the moon.  

Let's take a look at the company's most recent filing.  It isn't audited, but with OTC companies that comes with the territory and is one of the reasons stocks trading on the pink sheets have a less than stellar reputation.  

Here's a link to the most recent 10Q, for the period ending March 31, 2016:

http://www.otcmarkets.com/edgar/GetFilingHtml?FilingID=11366874

In the filing you will find this:

• The Company had an accumulated deficit of $3,619,669 and $3,331,878 as of March 31, 2016 and December 31, 2015, respectively, had net losses of $287,791 and $72,022 for the three months ended March 31, 2016 (Successor), and for the three months ended March 31, 2015 (Predecessor), respectively, and had negative working capital of $98,811 as of March 31, 2016.  These matters, among others, raise *substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern. (*emphasis is mine).

Another pertinent fact in my opinion is share structure, specifically the number of authorised versus outstanding shares.

• Common stock, $0.001 par value, 50,000,000 shares authorized; 15,435,651 shares issued and outstanding

Shares represent capital, when a company has negative cash flow from operations they can use shares to finance things like employee compensation and bonuses, as well as acquisitions and other general purpose needs.

Alright, I can just hear promoters and touts pounding the table screaming: 

"THAT'S OLD INFORMATION"!!!

That it is, and as such I consider it to be priced in.  I often share the view that all publicly available data, news, filings and everything else, that's its already "baked in" to the share price.  Stocks trade on supply and demand, not on old information.  

So what's the news that caused ABRW to go from a 52 week low of 19 cents to a recent high of $1.96?  A gain of over 900% in a little over three months?. That news came out of May 23rd, announcing a merger with New Age Beverages/Xingtea Group and judging by the volumes a lot of buyers stormed in.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/b-cha-inc-signs-merger-130000897.html

The press release refers to New Age Beverages as a highly profitable "$50 million" privately owned company.  Because its a private company I know of know way to determine on what basis this $50 million valuation is determined.  

Interestingly the total purchase price is listed as being $19,995,000 in the form of an initial $8.5 million in cash, an issuance of $6,995,000 in common stock and finally a deferred cash payment of $4.5 million.  

It would seem that this is quite a coup.  A $50 million company being acquired for just under $20 million.  Not a bad deal for the buyers.  But again, I can't find anything to justify the $50 million valuation cited in the PR.

Bottom line

I'm not convinced.  With all the hype and forward looking, safe harbor protected promise it is my opinion that those who've been buying recently, at or near the recent highs, that over the long term they're going to see their shares fall significantly in value.

Do note however that my opinion is based on the long term, and in the short term I fully expect there to be a lot of up and down volatility.  Given all the pumping in social media I am betting ABRW will have some big swings, both up and down.

I also expect those who are pumping, that they will be touting long term potential, trying to entice buyers on the way up on promises of riches.  And on the way down they'll blame short sellers and manipulation, exhorting those who get trapped at higher prices to average down.  "It was a great deal at $1+, its a steal under a buck".

And I'll bet dollars against donuts that I will come under attack, for this blog to be ridiculed and trashed.....It comes with the territory.  I'm not a broker dealer, nor am I qualified to give investment advice.  I'm just a retail schmo who's been around the public markets for over 20 years, a guy who used to work in the investment sector whose sharing his opinions and views about how the market game gets retail sheep to buy high while the smart money players sell high.

In my opinion this is a text book example of the Greater Fool idea being played out, and its a zero sum game.  Some will end up with shares when its all over and some will have cash.  Good luck

Full Disclosure

I have no position in ABRW long or short and absolutely zero intention of ever taking one out.  And given that his is an opinion piece it is possible that my opinion could prove to be wrong.

ABRW - A great example of stock promotion.....

Hello to all my loyal and dedicated readers, I appreciate both of you stopping by :-)

To everyone else who stumbled onto this site and are unable to locate the backspace key, or have a computer that is frozen and can't escape this pathetic and miserable little blog, well I will try and keep you entertained for a couple minutes at least.

The "rasison d'être" for this blog, (that's a fancy French expression meaning reason for being), is to help educate and enlighten poor retail schlubs like myself about the games that are played in the public markets.  Why are some players able to buy low and sell high?  Simple, that's because there are others doing the opposite, selling low and buying high.

Which group do you want to be a part of?  What's that?  You don't want to be in the group buying high?  Oh....that's too bad, because there is a mountain of effort that goes into trying to get you to do just that.  Would you like an example?

ABRW is the symbol for an OTC listed company, the company used to be American Brewing but is now called Búcha Inc.  Here's the chart:

Looks nice doesn't it?  Don't you wish  you'd heard about ABRW at the start of the year back when shares were trading for between 20 and 40 cents, instead of now when its jumped up near $2?  Yeah, I know...it sucks.  When OTC stocks are trading at or near their lows nobody is talking about them and volume is light.  Then they explode higher, news starts coming out and before you know it they've already doubled, tripled, quadrupled or more.

How did I find out about ABRW?  My (sic) friends at stockreversals.com have been promoting it all over Stocktwits, Twitter and probably in the email blasts they send out, (they stopped sending me mine, I don't know why).  I know this outfit pretty well, having tracked some of their other suggestions, MOBI, CLDN, WBAI, LEJU, SBOT, ZIOP....its a long list and not a pretty one for those who bought in before they all collapsed.

Of course maybe, just maybe this time they could be onto something.  Maybe ABRW will be the exception?  Nah, I don't think so either.  Here's what Stockreversals is saying on Twitter:

StockReversals.com‏@StockReversals

A micro cap with potentially massive upside $abrw small position 1.40 this week. Former top dog at Coke, Ambev and Cott now CEO

• RETWEETS4
• LIKES9
• 

9:04 AM - 3 Jun 2016

4 retweets9 likes

Sounds good doesn't it?  The former top dog from Coke?  Oh boy.....back up the truck and load up. But wait a minute, it always pays to verify claims by pumpers on sites like Twitter.  Let's see if its true:

Alrightee, here's a snippet from a March 29 2016 PR put out by ABRW.

"Mr. Willis was previously a President for Coca-Cola in Latin America...."

Top dog at Coke?  Well.....not really.  He wasn't "the" president, he was "a" president.  A president in Latin America.  Stockreversals wouldn't be the first outfit to stretch the truth, taking a guy who was a corporate president in someplace like Honduras maybe and trying to pass him off as "Top Dog".

But what else are they saying, do they have a target price?  You betcha....just like KTOV which they were predicting $10+ for before the bottom fell out. With ABRW the target is equally lofty for a stock trading at less than $2

StockReversals.com‏@StockReversals

Long at $1.40-$1.45, $ABRW could see 2.50 on breakout. Valuation says $6 to hit low end of industry Price to Sales ratio of 3, now $1.72

• RETWEET1
• LIKES3
• 

5:36 AM - 7 Jun 2016

Do you think these guys are buying?  Nope...neither do I, that's what they want their followers to do. Of course if one group is buying, then another one has to be selling.....And who do you think will end up on the wrong side of yet another Stockreversals recommended trade?  Yeppers, retailers....that's my opinion too.

Good luck