ATB's take on the U.S. Presidential Debate

If my legion of loyal fans (enough to fill all the seats around a table at a local coffee shop, with maybe one or two empty chairs) are curious as to my take on Donald versus Hillary...I won't make you wait.  I think Donald Trump won on points.

If you're curious about Joe Retail's politics, well here they are.  I'm a Canadian (as most already know) and I define myself as centre left (in Canada we spell center, centre).  I consider myself a fiscal conservative but socially progressive.  In my home and native land I have voted both left and right, I am not partisan nor am I dogmatic.

So why do I think Trump won?  

Simple, I think there are an awful lot of Americans (and the same is true up here in The North) who have watched their standard of living decline over the past few decades, and I believe Donald Trump spoke to that constituency better than Hillary Clinton.  Early on when Donald rattled off the names of swing states like Ohio, Indiana and Pennsylvania...blue collar and hard working, and spoke about the jobs they've seen heading to countries like Mexico and China, I think he scored big.

Hillary did land some nice blows on Donald however, especially on the issue of taxes and the fact that he pays very little or nothing. ''Because I'm smart'' was his retort.  But I do think a lot of Americans see crumbling infrastructure, underfunded schools and veterans not getting the support they need and other areas of under funding, and they have to wonder why a guy who is so rich isn't chipping in his fair share like hard working wage earners are.

But overall and in the final analysis I think Trump's message and branding of Hillary Clinton as a ''hack'', and the architect of so many of the United State's problems...I think it was effective.  It wasn't a knockout, that rarely happens in debates.  Those who supported Hillary before the debate, I doubt he brought many (or any) to his side.  But likewise I don't think those who supported Donald before the debate were swayed to switch camps either.

Now to bring this back to the markets....I do think Trump is right about the overall markets and interest rates.  I do think the Fed has to move very cautiously on rate increases because raising the cost of borrowing too much or too fast could have a disastrous impact on both the equity markets and the overall economy as a whole.

November is going to be interesting, but ultimately I expect Clinton to win.  Donald Trump is an outsider and just as the DNC rigged their nomination to ensure a Clinton candidacy I think the same will happen in November to ensure she is occupying the White House when Barack Obama leaves.  I forget who said it but the line goes something like this....its not who casts the votes that matters, but who counts them.

Peace out.