Vuzix - Has this company become a religion?

I haven't written anything on Vuzix for a while, in fact its been over a month since I've written anything at all here.  I'm still active on sites like StockTwits (growacet) and SeekingAlpha (Joe_Retail), but I haven't been contributing to my own blog.

I currently have no position in Vuzix whatsoever, but I did open a position playing VUZI on the short side in September, however that was closed in January.  That hasn't stopped me from chiming in fairly frequently on StockTwits where Vuzix has a large following of over 4,300 watchers, and sometimes on SeekingAlpha as well.  

I am often accused of either being still short on VUZI myself, or of somehow being compensated for my efforts by those who are.  Again, I have no position, and I have never been compensated to write anything about any stock, and would refuse any overtures of that nature regardless.

So, some will quite reasonably ask....Why bother commenting at all if you have no skin in the game?

Its a perfectly reasonable question, and one I have posed myself when confronted with persistent negative posting of a stock I own.  PPHM was being trashed mercilessly on StockTwits not too long ago when it was trading around 30 cents, and even now after climbing to around 70 it still continues. Some may be short players, others may just not like the company....Who knows why?  There are probably several possible reasons.

I will give my reasons for continuing to post my opinions on Vuzix despite have no financial stake.  

Its really not hard to understand why someone would post opinions on a subject despite having no financial stake in the outcome, all you have to do is look at social media sites like Reddit, Facebook and Twitter to name just three.  Its all about two things really, ego engagement with a bit of OCD (Obsessive Compulsive Disorder) thrown in.

There are threads on social media sites about who the best Star Fleet Captain is:  Kirk, Picard or Janeway.  On Facebook I have an ongoing feud with a friend of mine over whether the Toronto Maple Leafs are a .500 hockey team or not.  I say "not" because they've lost four more games than they've won.  My friend Scott insists they are a .500 team because 15 of those losses came in overtime or in a shootout, and in those losses the losing team gets a point.  Ultimately the Leafs are over .500 based on points, and under .500 based on wins and losses.  But the sword play is fun, and Scott and I like the exchange.

Sports, politics, the best captain....ego's become engaged and everyone wants to get the last word in.

But, as I so often do, I am digressing.

Before placing my bet on the short side with VUZI back in September I did my research and took out my position based on what I discovered.  The continual dilution coupled with an ever mounting accumulated deficit.  The huge 1:75 reverse split and the speed with which they burned through the $25 million Intel tossed their way.  On top of that of course there was all the paid hype and promotion, which is something I consider to be of vital importance when looking for stocks to avoid as long term holds.  Some promotion is to be expected, but when it is reported to be by as many as 21 different outfits.....Holy Pumpity Pump Batman.  

In the posts I've done on Vuzix I was also careful to underline that these were my opinions, and they could very well turn out to be wrong, especially when it comes to the PPS.  Ultimately a stock doesn't trade on fundamental performance, but rather on supply and demand.  Manipulation does play a role in my view, but it works both ways....stocks can be manipulated both higher and lower in my opinion.  

If fundamentals were the holy grail some claim then a garbage stock like CYNK would never have gone from one nickel to over $20.  I would argue that CYNK Communications also had a fair bit of manipulation involved in pumping it up to those levels, but no matter.....even though the company was fundamentally worthless that didn't stop some people from paying $20+ per share and getting creamed when the chickens came home to roost.

Of course for a lot of players, all that matters is the PPS.  If a stock goes up, no matter whether its just hype or solid financial results....Who cares?  I expressed my bearish opinion on a company that traded under the symbol ABRW back in June of 2016 just after its PPS had gone from under 50 cents to up around $2.  Subsequent to that posting the company changed its symbol to NBEV, was uplisted from the OTC Market to the Nasdaq and in November the PPS shot up to near $6.  

Strictly based on the PPS, and ultimately that's what stocks are all about no matter the reason.....I was wrong on ABRW/NBEV.  Its still trading over $4 as of last week's trading.  No question the higher share price has been a boon to the company given the recent capital raise they had.  In February they pulled in somewhere around $17 million through a public offering of over 4 million shares.  I'll leave any possible further comments about New Age for another day, and will wait until they have audited financial statements as their last 10Q came out when it was still an OTC stock without that requirement.  Suffice to say that up until Sept of 2016 the company still was not profitable with an accumulated deficit in excess of $5 million.  

But again, I'm digressing.  Time to get to the subject line of this post, asking if Vuzix has become a religion.

For those who aren't religious, the most important part of religion in my opinion is FAITH. Christians cannot prove that Jesus was crucified, died and resurrected, its something taken on as a matter of faith.  Muslims cannot prove that Mohammed was a prophet and Jews cannot provide definitive evidence that Moses led the Hebrews out of Egypt.  

With Vuzix, longs cannot prove that the company's new product offerings will do something that no previous products have done.  That is to make the company money.  But there are posters all over social media who seem to present it as fact, the same way some televangelists promise salvation, as a matter of faith.  And those like myself who are not convinced are attacked almost as heretics casting stones at the chosen one.  Puh-lease.  

I also believe there are likely some shareholders who have been convinced that the negative posting, be it by myself or others, that this is some form of PROOF that shares of VUZI must be a highly prized commodity and that its only because of manipulation that shares aren't worth at least the $9 they were back in September, if not much much more.  

I do get my back up when I see those promoting VUZI on sites like StockTwits presenting outright falsehoods in attempt to attract buyers.  Here's an example that just went up March 25th 2017:  

joodles33

judy buckey

$VUZI New money and present institutions adding shares. Reassuring.

It would be reassuring if it was a verifiable fact, but its not.  Adding is a 'present participle' denoting a continuing action in the present.  We can verify from filings available on Nasdaq's site that institutions WERE adding up to December 31st 2016 when the PPS was trading in and around the $7 mark.  But there are as yet no filings to tell us what institutions have been doing in January, February or March of 2017.  Have they been buying?  Selling?  Standing pat?  Nobody knows.

It could be that institutions have been dumping so far this year, which might explain why the share price is down from where it started the year.

If anyone has information about institutional activity since the calendar rolled over from 2016 to 2017 please share, otherwise I'll wait for the updated info to come out sometime in the month of June when we'll get to see the activity for the first 3 months of this year.

I know some were excited when Toshiba threw a little over $1 million at Vuzix, but I also remember all the posts about how Intel had given them $25 million and that wasn't even enough to forestall further dilution.  And now Intel has announced their intention to bail out.  

I'll wrap things up here by just noting again that I have no position, and to strongly advise anyone considering an investment in VUZI or any stock for that matter.....take message board and social media posting with a huge grain of salt.  Bashers are not always right, but likewise they are not always wrong.

Comments of course are welcome, with the usual caveat, no profanity.