Why it pays to get in early
In investing circles its sometimes called the "first mover" or "early adoption" advantage. Being ahead of the curve can pay off big. Its worked for me a few times, I wrote about some lithium miners both here and on Seeking Alpha years ago. And I've had success in the energy storage market space as well.
In investing circles its sometimes called the "first mover" or "early adoption" advantage. Being ahead of the curve can pay off big. Its worked for me a few times, I wrote about some lithium miners both here and on Seeking Alpha years ago. And I've had success in the energy storage market space as well.
In Biotech CAR-T was all the rage for a time with companies like Kite Pharmceutical and Juno Theraputics attaining multi billion dollar valuations. Kite was bought out for $12 Billion by Gilead Sciences just recently. Even Ziopharm, a late comer to the CAR-T party spiked big. Early buyers watched ZIOP's share price climb from down around $3 in late 2014 to up around $15 in early 2015, although it has crashed hard and is back in the $4 to $5 area now.
The take away is really quite simple. Most investors don't have the fortitude and foresight to buy until there's excitment. Many prefer to wait for big volumes and a spiking share price. Some need to hear the talking heads making buy reccomendations. There are those who genuinely believe buying high is less risky than buying low.
And once the party starts the herd is more than happy to come in and pay inflated prices, convinced they've caught lightening in a bottle. Lots of retail players don't care if they're buying into a stock or a sector that has already seen huge gains. They buy when industry "experts" say a a stock is a "MUST HAVE".
Of course getting in late can be costly, think of the poor Ziopharm investors who paid nearly $15 per share back in 2015. Those who have held tight need the PPS to go up around 300% just to break even.
Will BET Inhibitors be hot hot hot?
Do BET Inhibitors and the companies developing them have that kind of potential? Could firms in this space see the same multi-billion dollar valuations that some CAR-T developers saw?
I believe so. In fact I think it could be even bigger than the CAR-T space. And as the only company with a compound in a Phase III trial I believe Resverlogix (RVX.TO / RVXCF) could have blockbuster potential in a variety of indications.
Do BET Inhibitors and the companies developing them have that kind of potential? Could firms in this space see the same multi-billion dollar valuations that some CAR-T developers saw?
I believe so. In fact I think it could be even bigger than the CAR-T space. And as the only company with a compound in a Phase III trial I believe Resverlogix (RVX.TO / RVXCF) could have blockbuster potential in a variety of indications.
Okay....I hear some saying. What the frick is a BET Inhibitor???
Firstly the B in BET stands for Bromodomain. Everyone knows what "domain" means, well Bromodomain refers to an approximately 110 protein "domain" that recognizes acetylated lysine residues. I can almost picture the confused looks on some reader's faces. "The acetylated lysine residues"??? For many it probably makes as much sense as "Mersey Dotes and Doesy Dotes and Little Lambsy Divey".
What we're talking about here is Epigenetics which is much easier to understand.
Everyone knows what their Genes are, X and Y chromosones and all that stuff. Think of it in terms of a computer, Genetics (the DNA) represent the hardware of the computer. Epi-Genetics represents the software, basically turning things off and on. Epi is Latin and it means above, so Epi-Genetics is above the Genetic level and involves what are called: Readers, Writers and Erasers.
Now picture being able to read genes and then to modify their properties so as to eliminate disease causing conditions. If you can wrap your head around that concept then you have a layman's understanding of EpiGenetics and BET Inhibitors.
Everyone knows what their Genes are, X and Y chromosones and all that stuff. Think of it in terms of a computer, Genetics (the DNA) represent the hardware of the computer. Epi-Genetics represents the software, basically turning things off and on. Epi is Latin and it means above, so Epi-Genetics is above the Genetic level and involves what are called: Readers, Writers and Erasers.
Now picture being able to read genes and then to modify their properties so as to eliminate disease causing conditions. If you can wrap your head around that concept then you have a layman's understanding of EpiGenetics and BET Inhibitors.
I'm not going to get into heavy duty science because its beyond my realm, I understand it like I understood CAR-T....the basics. But I didn't understand much about mining either when I was buying Nemaska Lithium at 15 cents.
Are there Big Pharma Players involved?
What I see with BET Inhibitors is massive potential, and I'm not the only one. Those like myself with only an undergraduate or high school education in science might not entirely grasp the full picture. But others like researchers at Big Pharma companies such as Roche, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) do. BET Inhibitors are catching on big.
What I see with BET Inhibitors is massive potential, and I'm not the only one. Those like myself with only an undergraduate or high school education in science might not entirely grasp the full picture. But others like researchers at Big Pharma companies such as Roche, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) do. BET Inhibitors are catching on big.
GSK is conducting a Phase I clinical trial for I-BET762
Roche has RO6870810 also in Phase I:
I'll leave readers interested in doing further research on where Big Pharma players are at in developing their BET Inhibitor pipelines to their own devices. There is simply too much out there to cover. But what you will find is that the major players are in the early stages, pre-clinical and Phase one.
Is Resverlogix ahead of the pack?
As is often the case, its a smaller more nimble development stage company that has the lead. That would be Resverlogix, based in Calgary Alberta Canada and San Francisco. Resverlogix is developing RVX-208 which is the first BET Inhibitor to be named, its called Apabetalone. Apabetalone isn't just in Phase I or II, it is in phase III with a clincal trail called BETonMACE.
As is often the case, its a smaller more nimble development stage company that has the lead. That would be Resverlogix, based in Calgary Alberta Canada and San Francisco. Resverlogix is developing RVX-208 which is the first BET Inhibitor to be named, its called Apabetalone. Apabetalone isn't just in Phase I or II, it is in phase III with a clincal trail called BETonMACE.
This is an event based trial that has been running for two years and is seeking to demonstrate that Apabetalone administered with Statins will reduce the incidence of Major Adverse Cardiac Events, referred to as MACE, versus treatment with Statins alone.
Already the trial has received 5 positives reccomendations from its independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB). The most recent coming on November 1, 2017.
That PR notes that the DSMB, after reviewing the data, noted no safety or efficacy concerns.
This trial is being conducted on individuals suffering from Diabetes Mellitus with a subset of patients also suffering from Chronic Kidney Disease or CKD for short. Those familiar with Diabetes and CKD know that the risk of Major Adverse Cardiac Events, like heart attacks and strokes, is incredibly high.
But there is more. I said that Apabetalone has blockbuster potential in a variety of indications, and that means more than just Diabetes and CKD. There's a trial planned for patients with Fabry disease, an orphan indication.
Even Pfizer has taken note of Apabetalone's potential to treat a rare disease called Friedreich's Ataxia which causes progressive damage to the nervous system:
On top of all that there's potential for Alzheimers, Thrombosis, and other orphan indications. I don't think "blockbuster potential" is overstating things at all. In fact if Apabetalone is successful in treating all the indications that show promise, then the term miracle drug might be more fitting.
Are there any near term catalysts to look forward to?
As of this writing Resverlogix is trading at (in this writer's opinion) the incredibly low Market Capitalization of just over $155 million CDN, that's less than $125 million USD. And there are a number of near term developments which could have a hugely positive impact in raising that valuation.
As of this writing Resverlogix is trading at (in this writer's opinion) the incredibly low Market Capitalization of just over $155 million CDN, that's less than $125 million USD. And there are a number of near term developments which could have a hugely positive impact in raising that valuation.
The biggest near term potential catalyst in my view would be finalization of an $87 million CDN investment by Chinese based Pharmaceutical company Shenzhen Hepalink. That deal was announced on October 13th, and requires regulatory approval.
China is hot again. Biotech watchers probably saw the explosion of Acasti Pharma this week when they announced a non-binding term sheet with an unnamed Chinese Pharaceutical company. Cynics might view a non binding agreement with an unnamed company and roll their eyes. But after that news came out the PPS for ACST jumped from $1.25 the previous day to $3.10 by the closing bell.
If a stock like ACST can jump like that on a deal that might not even come to fruition, with a company that isn't even named, I can only imagine what could happen with news of Shenzhen Hepalink's investment in Resverlogix being finalized.
Then there's is the Futility Analysis (FA) for the BETonMACE trial which could come out any time now. A positive FA could attract serious attention, not just from investors, but possibly from major Pharmaceutical companies as well.
There are risks involed
I will point out the fact that there are obviously risk factors here, and I will encourage readers to go over the disclaimer infomation at the bottom of this site. I am a shareholder and my opinions should be viewed in that light, I eat my own cooking in other words.
Obviously if there were no risks and Resverlogix was 100% assured to have success with Apabetalone, then the market cap wouldn't be sitting where it is. Shares of RVX.TO have been trading around the $1.30 since June of this year with a couple of short lived spikes thrown in.
I will point out the fact that there are obviously risk factors here, and I will encourage readers to go over the disclaimer infomation at the bottom of this site. I am a shareholder and my opinions should be viewed in that light, I eat my own cooking in other words.
Obviously if there were no risks and Resverlogix was 100% assured to have success with Apabetalone, then the market cap wouldn't be sitting where it is. Shares of RVX.TO have been trading around the $1.30 since June of this year with a couple of short lived spikes thrown in.
I do believe the PPS could be on the cusp of another move, one that is bigger than anything previously seen. Independent investment dealer Beacon Securities, which caters to institutional clients, just published a report on Resverlogix with a 12 month PPS target of $8.55 CDN, a report that discloses no payment from the company.
Comments are always welcome, I do appreciate feedback. I only ask that comments not include any profanity or attacks, any that do will not be posted.
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