Time for me to take a break from writing about our wonderfully manipulated markets. A brief pause from offering up my views about the pump and dump games or the short and distort players who try to control investor sentiment.
I want to write about the recent British referendum where voters opted to leave the Euro Zone by a razor thin margin. To put it in the best British terms...
What a bloody mess!!! What total bollocks!!!
Firstly, this was not a binding vote, it was basically a plebiscite. And what it revealed is that British voters are sharply divided on the question of membership in the European Union. And with a result showing a tiny majority of those voting in favor of leaving, we're left with more questions than answers.
- Will European agencies based in Britain move their operations to the continent?
- Will London cease to be a world financial capital?
- Will Ireland and Scotland leave Britain to hold onto the benefits of Euro membership?
- If another referendum were called would British voters pull back from the brink and opt for the status quo?
Voter turnout for the referendum was high, very high when compared to recent norms, 72% of those eligible to vote cast a ballot. Compare that to any democracy in the western world and it is HUGE, expect in a country like Australia where voting is mandatory.
But even with 72% voting it means that more than one in four eligible voters declined to participate. That puts the results in a slightly different context. It means that only about one third of eligible British voters opted to leave. The majority either voted to stay or didn't vote at all.
Should a minority of eligible voters have this much power when the ramifications of leaving are so serious?
With so many questions swirling and so much uncertainty in the air there is something sorely needed right now, that something is LEADERSHIP. As things stand right now the British Parliament should replace 'God Save the Queen' as the national anthem with the Clash's 1980's hit 'Should I Stay or Should I Go'.
My personal view is that Britain should stay, that's my opinion. I don't think Euro membership is all rainbows and unicorns, but if Britain does leave I think things will be far worse. But whether staying or going, Britain needs a strong leader who will take decisive action.
If the decision is made to leave, then get on with it. Trigger Article 50 of the U.N. Charter and move, start the negotiation process. And if the decision is to remain, then make it and deal with the fallout, show some bravado, some leadership.
But right now that is impossible. David Cameron has resigned his leadership of Britain's ruling Conservative Party and so what we have is a vacuum. What Britain needs is some Winston Churchill, not Neville Chamberlain. But as things stand at present its even worse than that, Britain has neither.
Because of Britain's parliamentary democracy the current vacuum will remain until September 9th when the Tories pick a new leader. The next Prime Minister will either be Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom. Leadsom fought on the leave side while May supported remaining.
Why is this such a tough political decision, and what in the bloody hell does this have to do with U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump? I'm getting there.
The reason this is a tough decision is....
- With the electorate so evenly decided politicians don't want to risk alienating half the voting population.
- Because no matter what decision is made there will be problems
- Because modern politicians lack leadership skills
Imagine a business leader polling an entire company before embarking on a new marketing scheme. Or a basketball coach calling a time out to ask the players if they should go to a full court press. Or a military commander polling the troops about the best battle plan.
Those people would be fired, and justifiably so.
Which brings me to Donald Trump. Love him or hate him, the man does know how to make a decision, even if it is something stupid like sticking his name on things like steaks and an airline.
Stay or go, pick one and get on with it.
