Spotting the pumps easier than going long

This blog is not even three months old, and already I have managed to identify some stocks that, in my opinion, were inflated and due to come down.  Taking the PPS from my first write up on the following companies, here is how my bearish calls have performed as of this past Friday's close.

• May 8th  RYU.V   Down -18.9%
• May 5th  ZIOP     Down -27.2%
• May 17th KTOV   Down -54.9%
• June 12th ABRW  Up    +04.0%

My scorecard on bearish calls isn't perfect, but if ABRW does what I expect in the coming weeks and months, then I'll have to give myself an A+.  

As much as I'd like to pat myself on the back for my genius skills at sniffing out inflated stocks, it really wasn't that hard.  The way I see it this was all "low hanging fruit" so to speak.  Three out of those four companies, ZIOP, KTOV and ABRW were all hyped and promoted by an email blasting promotional outfit called StockReversals.  

I followed StockReversals long before I started this blog, and I've seen them pump a number of stocks that have all tanked.  In no particular order I've witnessed them pounding the proverbial table to drum up buyers for SBOT, MOBI, CLDN, LEJU and WBAI over the past 3+ years, touting long term value potential.  

If you want to check the charts on those stocks be my guest.  Those buying in expecting price appreciation over the long haul got creamed.  

RYU.V on the other hand was a stock I saw getting spammed all over a site popular for Canadian listed stocks, stockhouse.ca.  They'd just announced that Gwenyth Paltrow was going to promote their clothing line. I've seen so many celebrity endorsements for penny stock companies over the years, and have yet to see one deliver long term value to shareholders.

So why is identifying inflated stocks so much easier than finding companies with low share prices poised to make gains?

That's pretty easy to explain in my opinion.  Inflated stocks that are poised to drop big, they are SCREAMING for attention.  Why?  Simple....the smart money holders who want to sell need dumb money suckers to come in and pay the inflated price.  

Companies that are trading at or near their lows on the other hand, the good ones in my experience aren't experiencing heavy volume and don't have much in the way of news.  So it can be hit and miss trying to discern which ones might be good candidates.  

I have put out some bullish opinions on a couple that have born fruit though.  I wrote up EGT.V when it was 14 to 15 cents and it got up around 40 and is still trading in and around 28 to 30 cents.  And HMPR was at $1.81 when I expressed my reasons for being bullish and it just closed up over $1.90.

Hampton Road Bankshares is actually a company that I truly believe has the potential to deliver long term shareholder value.  That's not to say it is without risk, but to my eyes the fact that they are turning  a profit gives them a lower risk profile as compared to companies using their shares as capital to stay afloat.

Ultimately I think its every bit as important to know what to avoid as it is to know what to look for. Who wants to pay $6+ for a stock like KTOV only to have half your money wiped out in a matter of weeks.  

I've also mentioned some stocks that have come down, RVX.TO is one that I wrote about when it was trading at $1.34 and this past Friday it closed at $1.23 for a drop of 8.2%.   With RVX though I haven't seen any suspect pumping and table pounding all over social media....if that happens my opinion will change in all likelihood.  And if that does happen it might be reasonable to expect to see the PPS climbing well above even $1.34....only time will tell.  Ideally I'd like to see them succeed with the Phase III clinical trial.  

News Hype and Promotion boys and girls.  In my opinion that is the Unholy Trinity of the stock market that should be avoided.  Beware when something looks too tempting, things are not always as they appear.

Is Ziopharm guilty of fraud?

According to Running USA it takes the average man 4 hours 19 minutes and 27 seconds to run a marathon.  (SOURCE)

What does this have to do with Ziopharm?  You will see.

Imagine a sports drink company having 10 runners drink their product before running a marathon. Now imagine that all 10 beat the average time it takes to run 26 miles.  That might seem impressive. Maybe a press release would be put out citing the results.

***************************************************************

July 16, 2016  ATB Energy Drinkers Excel At Marathon

ATB Industries, (Symbol POS.OTC) the makers of sports drink ATB Energy, is pleased to announce that at the recent Quahog Marathon ten male runners drank our product before running the race. While the average time to run a marathon for a man is over four hours, the ten runners who drank ATB Energy before the race had an average time of just under 3 hours.

ATB CEO Peter Gryphon had this to say about the results:  "We are very encouraged by this news, although ten is not a large number it strongly suggests that using our product might provide a net benefit to individuals looking to increase their performance.  And if these results are any indication it could be reasonable to expect that athletes in other sports could perform well above average as well".

**************************************************************************************

Sounds good of course.  But maybe those 10 runners were all veterans of the Boston Marathon, where men aged 18-34 must qualify with a time of 3:05 or less.  Maybe one of them was even a previous winner of the Boston Marathon where winning times are typically a little over 2 hours.  That would certainly improve the overall average.

Aren't numbers fun?  Taking the hypothetical PR at face value without asking any questions....investors  might just storm in and buy ATB Industry stock, perhaps giving it a lift.

Would this be an example of fraud?  Personally I don't think so.  Nothing in the PR states that ATB Energy caused these runners to run outstanding times, its merely suggested that there might be a benefit.  But what if subsequent to the marathon 3 of the runners died of acute kidney failure after they continued to consume the product?  Would the company be guilty of fraud if they failed to disclose this fact to their investors in a timely fashion?  What if the company also failed to notify the appropriate regulators?

So what does this fictitious example have to do with Ziopharm?

On May 18th Ziopharm put out a PR with the headline:

ZIOPHARM Announces Clinical Data Highlighting Favorable Interim Survival Results with Gene Therapy Candidate Ad-RTS-hIL-12 in Brain Cancer

The PR cites median survival rates for patients with glioblastoma as being between 6 and 7 months for those who have had multiple recurrences, and just 3 to 4 months for those who have failed salvage chemotherapy with drugs such as temozolomide and  bevacizumab.  

The company then went on to report that 10 of 11 patients enrolled in the study are still alive, which caused many social media participants to tout Ziopharm's therapy as the reason for their survival, cause and effect.  

What the PR failed to mention (as with the ATB Energy drink example) is any of the details on the patients.  How long they'd already been living since being diagnosed or had any of them undergone chemo that succeeded in shrinking their tumors.  The purpose of the PR seems perfectly clear to me, its right there in the subject line.  The company wanted to highlight survival results, even though a Phase I trial isn't even designed to measure survival.  The primary objective of a phase I clinical study is to prove safety, or efficacy for those who like the fancier term.

Thanks to the fact that one of the participants in the trial, (a Mr. Charles Peacock) authors a blog we know some details on at least one patient.  Mr. Peacock's blog reports that he was diagnosed with glioblastoma back in April of 2012, over 4 years ago.  So obviously this courageous individual has already beaten the averages and then some....like the Energy Drink users above, this guy is already a champ.  

His blog also relates how he had successful chemo treatments with temozolomide.  I wrote a blog piece already on this warrior and his outstanding spirit here:

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/desperate-ziop-pumper-cites-clean-mri.html

Now....In my opinion Ziopharm's PR of May 18th, it isn't an example of fraud.  I do think touting survival rates in a study not designed to measure that variable is a bit suspect  and I consider it possible it was put out to support Ziopharm's falling share price.  

After trading up around $9 in mid April 2016, by  mid May the PPS had fallen all the way down to about $7.  Did the PR help the PPS?  Well it didn't hurt, by early June the PPS had recovered to as high as $8 per share.  

Now let's fast forward to the present, the news that came out Friday July 15th 2016, that the total number of deaths of patients in the trial has now climbed to three.  

http://ir.ziopharm.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=979750

The first two deaths were reported as being at 3.7 and 6.9 months after treatment.  But the news doesn't give any details on these patients, such as how long ago they were diagnosed or if previous chemo treatments were successful or not. The company asserts that the deaths were unrelated to the study drugs.  The third and most recent death they say "has just been reported to us", with this brain cancer patient suffering a cranial hemorrhage.  The PR calls this "an isolated" case.  

I don't like fuzzy words, and "just" is fuzzy.  Was it "just" today, "just" last week or "just" last month? The PR goes on to say that they haven't yet notified the FDA of the most recent death.    

Enter the lawyers:

Two PRs came out from law firms saying they are investigating possible violations of security laws, specifically about sections 10 (b) and 20 (a) of the Security Exchange Act of 1934.  Section 10 deals with misstatements or omissions made by a company that could constitute fraud while 20 seems to relate to the question of individual and/or corporate liability. 

Just as my medical background is restricted to high school and university science courses, my legal bona fides are equally thin.  With that being said I believe a lot will depend on timing.  How long did Ziopharm have this information before it was released to the investing public?  

The legal PRs also state that Ziopharm was engaged with an investment bank in an effort to raise 50 million dollars, however the news says that the deal has now been abandoned.  Those who have taken the time to read Ziopharm's SEC filings already know that the company does not have sufficient capital to fund operations to the completion (if successful) of clinical trials and that they'll be in need of financing by the end of 2017 or possibly even sooner.  

For investors wanting to make inquiries of their own, here are the relevant PRs from the law firms announcing their investigations:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/important-investor-alert-goldberg-law-001600961.html

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/federman-sherwood-investigates-ziopharm-oncology-202100911.html


Disclosure:  I have no current position in ZIOP however I may in the future, in all likelihood going short.

Avoid The Bag weighs in on the U.S. Presidential race....

As a Canadian some might say I don't have any real 'skin in the game' when it comes to whom Americans elect as their next president.  That's true, but only to a certain extent.  The U.S. is still the world's largest economy, and is Canada's biggest trading partner.  In fact its often remarked here that when the United States sneezes, Canada catches a cold.

Obviously the next occupant of the White House will have influence beyond the borders of the 50 states, whether its Donald or Hillary.

All I can say at this point to my American friends is...."good luck".  What a choice!!!  To be perfectly honest and frank, I don't know what I'd do if I had to choose between those two.  On the one hand you have Clinton, with views that seem to change with the wind depending on her audience.  First opposed to Gay marriage, now a champion of same sex unions and the LGBT community.  Then there's her Bosnia story about running for cover after debarking from a plane due to sniper fire, while video shows her smiling and accepting flowers from a little girl.

And Trump???  A trust fund rich kid who inherited a fortune, who places a value on his name in the billions but who cheapens it by putting it on failed casinos, vodka and steaks.  A guy who used to support the Clintons who now is running against one of them.  A guy who hasn't met a complicated intricate problem that he doesn't have a glib simple solution for.

In terms of the markets, and who would inspire the most confidence from Wall Street and investors....its hard to say.  I'm leaning toward thinking Trump would be better, but then again maybe not.  I think many retail investors would see a Trump presidency as a positive for business.  But the professional investment community also prefers the known to the unknown....and while Clinton seems to be for sale and willing to bend, will the Donald show equal flexibility and a willingness to cater to big business interests?  How will big capital (much bigger than DT's net worth) react if he's unwilling to listen?

Anyway my Yankee friends, its your choice, such as it is.

I was living in the US during the 1972 election between Nixon and McGovern.  My public school had a straw vote, and they let me vote even though I wasn't an American citizen.  Anyway I voted for Nixon, and he won my school's mock vote by probably the same margin that he swept the country with.

When I got home my mother asked me what happened at school.  When I told her about the election she asked who I voted for.  A lifelong left wing liberal thinker...she just about hit the roof.  Years later, whenever we disagreed during a political discussion she'd always say:

"Well, what do you know anyway?  You voted for Nixon"!!!

Somehow I think years from now...there will be people saying the same thing to those who voted for the eventual winner. Whether its Trump or Clinton who ends up getting the job as Commander In Chief, I think its the American people, and maybe even us Canadians too, who will end up the losers.

Lithium Americas (LAC.TO) $1.00 resistance becomes $1.00 support....

LAC.TO still hasn't seen the "clear sky break out" I've been anticipating from the Cup & Handle chart pattern I've remarked on in earlier posts.  Perhaps it never will, I still like the chances but there's no such thing as a slam dunk, not in the public markets.

But something positive has happened.  

After butting up repeatedly against resistance at $1.00 CDN the stock finally broke through on June 30th 2016 and from that day until now it has not closed below one Canadian dollar.  From July 4th (Canadian markets are open on the 4th, closed on July 1) to present the lowest LAC has traded is 97 cents during the trading day.  But even on the two days shares dipped to that 97 cent level, bulls pushed it back up to at least $1 at the bell.

Does that mean LAC won't fall back below $1 CDN?  No, again...there are no sure things in the markets.  But it is a bullish technical indication going forward when a level of resistance becomes of level of support, which is what the chart shows.

Also take note of the volumes.  The green bars represent volumes when the PPS closed up for the day, and the red bars correlate to days when the PPS closed down.  Another bullish indication is when prices climb on heavier comparative volume and fall when trading is lighter.  LAC closed down .01 cents on the TSX Wednesday (July 13th 2016) but volume was only 737,411 on the various Canadian exchanges, and only 530,134 on the main TSX.  

That's about one quarter of the 3 month average volume on just the TSX, which is 2.1 million. Should volumes pick back up into the 5+ million range I expect to see another + spike in the PPS.  And maybe even that clear sky breakout I believe the Cup & Handle chart has been predicting.

How high do I think LAC might go?  That's a tough question, but the first obvious line of resistance in my opinion is that $1.15 price level that shares hit on July 4th.  If LAC can get above that $1.15 CDN mark then I'm looking at the US side where Lithium Americas trades with the symbol LACDF.  

Just as $1 CDN proved a point of resistance, I think $1 USD could likewise translate into another psychological barrier.  The volumes on the Canadian TSX exchange are more robust, but volumes south of the border are nothing to sneeze at either.  Average daily volume for the past 3 months for LACDF is just a hair shy of 700,000 per day.  

$1 USD is around $1.30 Canadian at current exchange rates.  And full disclosure, I have an order to sell a portion of my shares in around this level.   Will my sell order fill?  I like the chances, but for a third time now....obviously, there are no sure things.  

If history is any guide, I have a habit of selling too soon in any case, witness Nemaska.  If LAC busts through $1 USD and keeps climbing....oh well, I'll cry into the money I made.  But not too much, I'll still be holding what I consider a significant position having only taken profits on a little over one third of my shares.

As I say so often here at Avoid The Bag, repeating the lesson my late great father taught me, nobody ever went broke taking profits.

Good luck and please take note of the disclaimer at the very bottom of this blog.  Also comments are always welcomed provided the tone is reasonable and absent of the usual pumping and bashing seen on most message boards.

A penny stock poised to make MASSIVE long term gains!!!

You've probably come here because you're tired of watching penny stocks take off for big gains and missing the boat.  Maybe you have a friend who bought a stock for something like 10 cents and then saw it explode to $1 or $2 allowing them to realize incredible profits of 1,000% or even higher.  

Wouldn't you like to be one of the players turning hundreds of dollars into thousands, thousands into tens of thousands, tens of thousands into hundreds of thousands....maybe even millions.

You're probably familiar with what is generally called a "pump and dump".  And its not just penny stocks, it can happen on more senior exchanges like the Nasdaq as well.  Hype and promotion are not exclusive to the OTC.  Typically you're looking at companies that have negative earnings, businesses with a history of using their shares to fund operations and for things like rent and to pay salaries.

But that's not what you're looking for.

• You want to "invest" in a solid company.  
• You want a low priced stock that you can tuck away in your portfolio without having to worry that one day the share price will collapse.  
• You want something stable that will deliver long term value.

If you're a momentum player, a penny flipper, someone who likes to catch onto pump and dumps with an eye to day trading for small percentage gains....GET LOST, THIS INFORMATION ISN'T FOR YOU!!!  

I am only interested in sharing this with genuine investors.  With people who are looking for a penny stock play with solid fundamental prospects for incredible gains and little to zero risk. I only want people who have a long term value perspective, even if it is just an OTC pink penny stock.

If that is you, then keep reading.

Are you ready for this information?  Are you salivating at the prospects of monster gains?  I won't make you wait any longer.....here it is.

YOU ARE A MORON, AN IDIOT, SOMEONE WITH MORE MONEY THAN BRAINS!!! YOU ARE, WITHOUT QUESTION, DUMBER THAN DIRT!!!

Do you really think someone is going to share information like this openly and freely on some pathetic blog or investor fourm?

If there is someone who knows about a penny stock that's going to explode, they're not gonna be looking for every Tom, Dick and Mary, giving this information away freely to anyone with a pulse and a trading account.

If someone knows about a 10 cent stock that's going to make monster gains they might let some close friends and family members in on it.  But they're not gonna start pumping and promoting it until they're ready to turn their shares into money by selling.  They'll keep mum until that time when they're looking to take those 10 cent shares and turn them into dollars, lots and lots of dollars.

My advice?  Grow a brain and come back to the markets when you're no longer a gullible fool.

Not convinced?  Still think you can search message boards, stock promotional sites, blogs and other social media outlets for hot trading ideas and find a solid OTC penny stock that will deliver incredible gains and long term value?  Well....you won't have to look too hard.   Click on those ads promising big gains, sign up for newsletters, troll some investor forums....it shouldn't take more than a few minutes.  

Before long you'll have an expert telling you all about some company with supposedly solid fundamentals that is pretty much a lead pipe cinch to be a big player in any number of industries.  It could be technology, a drug company, sports drinks, health food, retail, mining....you name it.

And anyone that dares to suggest its just some pump and dump....they'll be told "this one is different", that they don't understand the fundamentals.  They'll be accused of trying to talk the PPS down so they can buy cheap, or of being short.

Like carnies running the ring toss at your local county fair, stock promoters are looking for you long term players right now.  For people who think you can invest in an OTC Pink penny stock based on the prospect of forward looking fundamentals.  Don't let them down, and enjoy the comb.

ABRW - Too good to be true?

I first wrote about ABRW on June 12th 2016:

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/abrw-great-example-of-stock-promotion.html

In that post I included the chart which showed ABRW at $1.75.  That was just after it had traded up around $2, a 52 week high, having climbed from lows around just 20 cents as recently as February and March of this year.

Well, it seems there's some more promotional effort at work, and I have to say, it looks good. Seeking Alpha contributor John H. Ford just put up a blog posting on July 8th claiming that Bucha is a $7 stock for his nearly 2,000 followers.  It was also shared on his Twitter account where he has over 3,700 following him.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/592211-john-h-ford/4897637-bucha-1-stock-now-worth-7

Not bad eh!!!  How often do you get to buy something that's worth $7 but only have to pay $2?  Man, that's like someone offering to sell you a 2016 Dodge Challenger for just $10,000 instead of the regular price of $30,000+.  I bet these cheap shares are gonna disappear pretty quick.  What idiots would be selling something for $2 or less when its worth $7?

You know what they say though....when something sounds to good to be true, it usually is.  So what's the deal with $ABRW?  Did those who sold over 100,000 shares today at prices ranging from $1.81 - $2.05....did they just get hosed?  Or did they do well to take the cash?  According to Mr. Ford's blog the shares are now worth $7, that's not stated as opinion, its presented as fact.  Did today's sellers not get the memo? 

Okay....what's up.  Why would someone say a stock trading around $2 is worth $7 if they're buying? Its seems to me that's the kind of thing you say when you're looking to sell.  People will buy lots of things (often worthless) if they can be convinced they're screwing the seller.  

"I hate to let this car go for $5,000 because its worth at least $10,000...maybe even $15,000....but I have no choice, I'm leaving the country in two days".  You've probably seen or heard of ads like this on Craig's List. 

Bucha is an OTC listed company trading on the pink sheets with the symbol ABRW.  Its been getting a fair bit of hype lately as mentioned in my earlier posts.  Pictures of Bucha's drinks have been popping up on twitter, someone even snapped a pic of them in a shopping cart.

buchador ‏@buchador_nyc  18h

18 hours ago

@buchalive $abrw - Sunday night shopping getting ready for the work week. This should do it. #buchador

2 retweets6 likes

Obviously Bucha is a real company, no question about that.  It reminds me somewhat of when Tiger Woods put energy drink Fuse "on his bag" and did a CNBC interview about his new endorsement deal.  A lot of people stormed into Fuse Science's stock after that, pushing that OTC Pinkie stock to dollars.  The symbol for Fuse Science is DROP, which is fitting.  Just check what its trading for now and you'll understand why.

Nortel also springs to mind, many investors bought into that debacle because, seeing the phone they used at work sporting the Nortel logo, they knew it was real.  Unfortunately what Nortel was "real" good at was losing money, and at accounting irregularities.

Of course after so many scandals with companies like Nortel, Enron and Worldcom to name just three....more stringent regulations were brought in with the Sarbanes-Oxley act of 2002.  The act is designed to give investors more confidence in the financial data public companies release to shareholders and prospective investors.

Companies that trade in the United States on the NYSE, Nasdaq and OTC must conform to the act, typically referred to as Sab-Ox.  Only companies with stocks trading OTC Pink are exempt.  Oooops.

Okay....but what is ABRW saying and why do guy's like Mr. Ford assert that buying ABRW around $2 is a steal, like that vehicle on Craig's List being given away at a fraction of its real value?

Its because of their acquisition of New Age Beverages and Xing Tea.  The press release touts the acquisition as being a "$50 million+ new business combination".  Mr. Ford's blog claims that New Age is generating $50 million annually.  I assume that to be a revenue figure, but I don't know where to verify it.  New Age, was a private company....not even a pink sheet listed one.  As such they are not required to file financial statements like 10Qs and 10Ks....not even unaudited ones like ABRW.

I remember my late great father telling me about the 3 kinds of lies that exist.  Lies, damn lies, and accounting.

I know this blog is going to get trashed.  Pumpers don't like being called out....and that's what I think is going on here, and that's what I'm doing, I'm calling BS here.  In my opinion this is just yet another OTC hype job.  

Don't agree?  Hey....fill your boots, load up on as many shares as you can afford, I'm not here to tell anyone how to play the markets, I'm just an old retail investor expressing his views on a  blog.  Read my disclaimer. If you really believe ABRW is a steal, then share this blog everywhere you can.....maybe you can buy even more and get the shares cheaper, like talking down the house you want to buy....Only an idiot raves about something they're buying, that just makes the sellers more reluctant and gets them asking for higher prices.

In my opinion this is a classic pump, and often times they work.  Dumpers get lots of cash and buyers get lots of inflated shares, its a zero sum game boys and girls.  

Disclosure:  I have no position in ABRW long or short and no intention of ever initiating one.

Some thoughts on Brexit, Leadership and Donald Trump....

Time for me to take a break from writing about our wonderfully manipulated markets.  A brief pause from offering up my views about the pump and dump games or the short and distort players who try to control investor sentiment.

I want to write about the recent British referendum where voters opted to leave the Euro Zone by a razor thin margin.  To put it in the best British terms...

What a bloody mess!!!  What total bollocks!!!

Firstly, this was not a binding vote, it was basically a plebiscite.  And what it revealed is that British voters are sharply divided on the question of membership in the European Union.  And with a result showing a tiny majority of those voting in favor of leaving, we're left with more questions than answers.  

• Will European agencies based in Britain move their operations to the continent?  
• Will London cease to be a world financial capital?  
• Will Ireland and Scotland leave Britain to hold onto the benefits of Euro membership?  
• If another referendum were called would British voters pull back from the brink and opt for the status quo?  

Voter turnout for the referendum was high, very high when compared to recent norms, 72% of those eligible to vote cast a ballot.  Compare that to any democracy in the western world and it is HUGE, expect in a country like Australia where voting is mandatory.  

But even with 72% voting it means that more than one in four eligible voters declined to participate. That puts the results in a slightly different context.  It means that only about one third of eligible British voters opted to leave. The majority either voted to stay or didn't vote at all.

Should a minority of eligible voters have this much power when the ramifications of leaving are so serious?  

With so many questions swirling and so much uncertainty in the air there is something sorely needed right now, that something is LEADERSHIP.  As things stand right now the British Parliament should replace 'God Save the Queen' as the national anthem with the Clash's 1980's hit 'Should I Stay or Should I Go'.  

My personal view is that Britain should stay, that's my opinion.  I don't think Euro membership is all rainbows and unicorns, but if Britain does leave I think things will be far worse.  But whether staying or going, Britain needs a strong leader who will take decisive action.  

If the decision is made to leave, then get on with it.  Trigger Article 50 of the U.N. Charter and move, start the negotiation process.  And if the decision is to remain, then make it and deal with the fallout, show some bravado, some leadership.  

But right now that is impossible.  David Cameron has resigned his leadership of Britain's ruling Conservative Party and so what we have is a vacuum.  What Britain needs is some Winston Churchill, not Neville Chamberlain.  But as things stand at present its even worse than that, Britain has neither.  

Because of Britain's parliamentary democracy the current vacuum will remain until September 9th when the Tories pick a new leader.  The next Prime Minister will either be Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom.  Leadsom fought on the leave side while May supported remaining.  

Why is this such a tough political decision, and what in the bloody hell does this have to do with U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump?  I'm getting there.

The reason this is a tough decision is....

• With the electorate so evenly decided politicians don't want to risk alienating half the voting population.  
• Because no matter what decision is made there will be problems
• Because modern politicians lack leadership skills

Imagine a business leader polling an entire company before embarking on a new marketing scheme. Or a basketball coach calling a time out to ask the players if they should go to a full court press.  Or a military commander polling the troops about the best battle plan.

Those people would be fired, and justifiably so.  

Which brings me to Donald Trump.  Love him or hate him, the man does know how to make a decision, even if it is something stupid like sticking his name on things like steaks and an airline.  

Stay or go, pick one and get on with it.