Saturday, November 26, 2016

Message board fun and games with Cannabis plays like New Age Farms

Banter on stock message boards can be fun.  On occasion you might stumble on someone sharing some useful information, but by and large it typically degenerates into a penis waving contest between those pumping the positives and others who bash based on the negatives.  I am prone to do both, with different stocks of course.  

New Age Farms trades in Canada on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE) under the symbol NF and in the U.S. on the OTCBB with the symbol NWGFF.  The company came onto my radar the same way many penny stocks do, via a promotional email blast from some outfit that calls itself Daily Stock Reporter.  

The email itself is pretty much standard boiler plate for penny stock promotion, with the typical hyperbole you would expect:  "There's no telling how big of a run this could have....".  If you look closely at the small font print at the bottom of the email it discloses payment of $12,500 in cash. There's also a link to a "Full Report":  http://egmprofiles.com/NWGFF.pdf

If you bother to go onto that site you'll see the disclaimer again at the bottom, and if you click the word disclaimer it takes you to this EGM's disclaimer page.  I have to admit that I love the honesty and candor, they basically say "this is a pump".  Here's a cut and paste of some of what it says.

What will happen when the Campaign ends?

Most, if not, all of the Profiled Issuers are penny stocks that are illiquid and whose securities are subject to wide variations in trading price and volume. During the Campaign the trading volume and price of the securities of each Profile Issuer will likely increase significantly. When the Campaign ends, the volume and price of the Profiled Issuer will likely decrease dramatically. As a result, investors who purchase during the Campaign and hold shares of the Profiled Issuer when the Campaign ends will likely lose most, if not, all of their investment.

Why do we publish only favorable Information?

We only publish favorable information because we are compensated to only publish favorable information.

Why don’t we publish negative information?

We don’t publish negative information because we are not paid to publish negative information. We are paid to publish only favorable information.

Is the Information complete, accurate, truthful or reliable?

The Information is a snapshot that provides only positive information about the Profiled Issuers. The Information consists of only positive content. We do not and will not publish any negative information about the Profiled Issuers; accordingly, investors should consider the Information to be one sided and not balanced, complete, accurate, truthful or reliable.

What we do not do.

We do not publish negative information about the Profiled Issuers. We do not verify or confirm any portion of the Information. We do not conduct any due diligence or research any aspect of the Information including the completeness, accuracy, truthfulness or reliability of the Information. We do not review the Profiled Issuers’ financial condition, operations, business model, management or risks involved in the Profiled Issuer’s business or an investment in a Profiled Issuer’s securities.

Its hard to argue with that disclosure, its pretty bang on the money and brutally honest.  If you want to read the whole thing here's the link:  http://www.egmfirm.com/disclaimer/

I shared that information on Stockhouse.ca, my user ID is ledrog and I've been on that site since 2001. As you might expect I was attacked by the bulls as a short, accused of using multiple IDs, and of engaging in manipulation so that I could load up "cheap".  I find that funny since it wasn't long ago that NF was trading around 2 or 3 cents, so I hardly think anything over 10 cents is "cheap".  

Full disclosure, I have no position in NF long or short and no intention of initiating one at any time in the future.  

Okay.....so the bulls say:  What of it?  Read the news, this is a great company.....gonna be huge, great business plan, yadda yadda yadda.  Yeah yeah, I've heard it all before.

These emails are aimed at the lowest common denominator in my opinion, people with more money than brains.  I'm talking about people who think "Safe Harbour" is a small town in Newfoundland. Its "Forward Looking Language" we're talking about here.  Anything that says we: expect, anticipate, plan or similar type language.  It sounds great, but these are not material statements of fact.  Plans don't always work out, expectations are often not met, things that are anticipated sometimes never come to pass.

Regular readers know I'm not big on fundamentals, especially with highly speculative stocks.  The point I keep trying to drive home is that if you want to make money with penny stocks, your best chance is with companies that are lightly traded, because the sheep haven't been called to the dinner table yet.  

The risk you take buying when things are quiet is that the herd will never show up.  That the promotion, news and hype that gets the great unwashed all excited, greedy and buying high, that it won't happen.  In my view that's still better than storming into a stock that's already climbed from 1 or 2 cents to 20 or 30 cents for gains of 1,000% or more.

I'd love to post a chart of NF, but charting sites are few and far between for CSE listed stocks. The CSE has the easiest listing standards in Canada, I liken the CSE to the U.S. OTC non-reporting Pink Sheets, sometimes called the Gray Market.

Cannabis stocks are popping up all over the place, and I fully expect to get more emails on others, especially for those listed on the CSE and Pinks.  I have taken a couple of flyers myself and if one of the companies I hold starts getting pumped and promoted in this fashion, I'm sure you can guess what I'll be doing.

Good luck


10 comments:

  1. Do you ever trade on share-price adjusted volume, or just pure volume?

    I have a few stocks that I watch on the sidelines looking for potential buy opportunities, but volume itself can be biased based on the share price.

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  2. I look at overall volume, irrespective of price...watching for volumes to equal 10% or more of the issued and outstanding. When I see that happen I believe it can signal a reversal in trend....with penny stocks though once a big P&D has happened I figure its dead for at least a year or two until the money runs out.

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  3. Is it worth keeping the stocks in NF for the NHS Spin off?

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  4. So long as you held NF on Friday at the closing bell, then you get them anyway. The distribution is for holders of record as of November 30th, so even those who sold Monday, Tuesday or today will get them regardless because it takes 3 days for a trade to settle, otherwise referred to as "the settlement period".

    As to whether to hold NF or not, that is for each individual to decide based on their knowledge, investment/trading goals and tolerance for risk.

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  5. So I definitely will be getting the shares for NHS. I invested in NF when it was .18 and decided to stay on risk for the NHS shares. What's your opinion Joe, Would you stay with NF?

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  6. So I own NF at .185 & it seems although the stock is down, it will rise based on company fundamentals. What do you think JOE?

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    Replies
    1. I don't think there is any fundamental foundation for NF, in my opinion its all built on hype.

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  7. Do you feel that NF is going to increase in price or is this another boiler room scam?

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    Replies
    1. I think this is primarily a story stock that has been pumped and promoted...I don't know if there's an actual boiler room type operation pumping it, but it does resemble that in my opinion.

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  8. My own personal opinion of NF is that its overvalued and that a market cap of $1 to $2 million is reasonable on pure speculative value. But that doesn't mean it won't recover and have another run. Even if I'm right about the long term, penny stocks trade on emotion and psychology rules. Its like the tech bubble when many companies with $0 tangible value saw their valuations sky rocket.

    Each individual must come to their own conclusions, and if unsure should seek out the advice of a professional adviser.

    I will say that I'm confident that NF and a lot of other penny stock MJ plays should only be viewed as trading vehicles and not as long term buy/hold investments, that's my bottom line opinion. But I must acknowledge that I could be wrong.

    Good luck

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