MYDX and NBEV - Admitting bad calls....

I haven't been shy about patting myself on the back here when I've written a bullish opinion on a stock that then goes on to make substantial gains.  I've had a number of successes.

The Bullish Calls

I first wrote about LAC.TO at $0.75 CDN and it is now trading for $1.06....I long ago took profits on that stock at lower prices than where its trading now, and when that happens I simply cry into the money I made.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/04/lithium-americas-cup-and-handle-forming.html

EGT.V is one I wrote about at 14 Canadian pennies.  I bailed on it after doubling my money but its still trading up around 25 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/the-lure-of-clean-energy-eguana.html

HMPR, which is now trading as XBKS after a merger is one I'm particularly happy about, and while I have taken profits by selling some shares its one I continue to like and have maintained a position in.
It was trading at a split adjusted price of $18.10 when I first wrote about it here, now its at $26.50 after pulling back from as high as $30.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/hampton-roads-bankshares-hmpr-great.html

RVX.TO is a stock I first wrote about here when it was trading around $1.30 CDN, its currently at $1.75 after getting up around $2.50 in October and is one I still continue to both like and hold, however fully ackowledging that it is extremely high risk in my view.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/resverlogix-phase-iii-clinical-trial.html

ACU.V written about at .16 cents now at .185 is one I doubled down on when it fell to 10 cents.  I took some profits when I climbed up over 20 cents, but I still am maintaining a position and still think there's much more upside potential.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/07/the-lure-of-green-energy-aurora-solar.html

In October I expressed a bullish opinion on RMHB when it was trading around .036 cents American. Now it has climbed to .092....it is another one where I'll have to cry into the money I made, bailing on it after a 50% profit.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/hemp-infused-beverages-intriguing-idea.html

KUB.V has been a monster, I wrote about it in October as well when it was 2 cents...and now its settled in around 6 cents after trading as high as 7.5 pennies CDN.  Its one I continue to hold, in fact I just added to the position I started at 2.5 cents by buying more at 6 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/an-intriguing-penny-play-kubv-ukranian.html

Not too bad at all, and I'm leaving out more recent gainers like Emblem Corp.

Of course not all my calls were long plays.  I did express bearish views at times when I thought some stocks were bubbling up on nothing more than Promotion, News and Hype.

The Bearish Calls
I wrote a few bearish opinions on ZIOP starting last May when that stock was trading in and around $7 to $8 per share, now its sitting around $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ziopharm-wall-street-sting.html

I did a couple posts on KTOV also in May when that stock was trading up around $6.60 per, now its fallen all the way to around $3.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ktov-what-just-happened.html

And then there's VUZI when it was up at $8.81 on its way to almost $10.  Now its fallen all the way back to $6.40

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/09/vuzix-time-machine-back-to-tech-bubble.html

And finally my very recent bearish thoughts on NF.CN from November when it was up around 25 Canadian pennies and on its way to being promoted to over 30 cents.  Its now trading for 11 or 12 cents and in my opinion on its way back to .02 cents eventually.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/message-board-fun-and-games-with.html

But enough of the successful calls, I didn't get them all right last year and I am sure I will get some wrong in the future.  Two opinions I expressed were particularily bad, one long idea and one short.

MYDX is a company I wrote about this past November and one I took a position out in.  When I wrote about the PPS was trading for 2.2 cents, and I bought into at .0144 as revealed in the comments. Its most recent closing price was .0021 for a drop of over 80%.  Ouch!!!  Thankfully it was a small position, and I followed my own advice in that post and only risked money I could afford to lose.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/mydx-another-way-to-play-marijuana-space.html

I will continue to hold MYDX (the symbol and company name are one and the same).  The company is forecasting profitability in the near future, I'm not going to hold my breath however.  A good recipe for going broke in my opinion is to believe the forward looking bullish outlooks on penny stocks. I've already booked some solid capital gains in 2017 and losses can come in handy at tax time, even if the dollar amount is small.

The bearish short opinion was expressed on NBEV, back when it was trading under the symbol ABRW.  I wrote about that stock in June of last year when it was trading up around $1.75 cents after already made a huge jump from as low as .20 cents in February and March.  Today its trading up around $4.20 and has been as high as $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/abrw-great-example-of-stock-promotion.html

My opinion on NBEV hasn't changed for the long term, but I have to admit I was wrong.  The ultimate arbiter in the market is price, and I thought NBEV had been pumped up near its limits in June, so I was incredibly wrong on that one as well.

When I get it right I'm not shy about sharing my success, but that means I have to take ownership of those views and opinions I get wrong too.  Some social media posters talk with extreme confidence when pumping and bashing stocks because they know sheep will follow strength, and admitting to past failures or the possibility that a call could be wrong, well that doesn't inspire confidence, and pumpers and bashers in my opinion (one that is often not humble) is that most are industry hacks.

Professional market players infest social media sites where stocks are discussed, that's opinion but for me its not up for debate.  The way I see things they are manipulators and bullies, trying to dominate the herd so as to shepherd the sheep into the stocks they're dumping, or out of the ones they want to accumulate.

I'll end this post here and wish everyone luck.  I will also once again cite those two maxims that I think are of critical importance to retail investors.  Firstly that nobody has ever gone broke from taking profits, and secondly that if you sell a stock and then see it continue climbing even higher, before buying back in cry into the money you made and think again about that first maxim.

Cheers.

Message board fun and games with Cannabis plays like New Age Farms

Banter on stock message boards can be fun.  On occasion you might stumble on someone sharing some useful information, but by and large it typically degenerates into a penis waving contest between those pumping the positives and others who bash based on the negatives.  I am prone to do both, with different stocks of course.  

New Age Farms trades in Canada on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE) under the symbol NF and in the U.S. on the OTCBB with the symbol NWGFF.  The company came onto my radar the same way many penny stocks do, via a promotional email blast from some outfit that calls itself Daily Stock Reporter.  

The email itself is pretty much standard boiler plate for penny stock promotion, with the typical hyperbole you would expect:  "There's no telling how big of a run this could have....".  If you look closely at the small font print at the bottom of the email it discloses payment of $12,500 in cash. There's also a link to a "Full Report":  http://egmprofiles.com/NWGFF.pdf

If you bother to go onto that site you'll see the disclaimer again at the bottom, and if you click the word disclaimer it takes you to this EGM's disclaimer page.  I have to admit that I love the honesty and candor, they basically say "this is a pump".  Here's a cut and paste of some of what it says.

What will happen when the Campaign ends?

Most, if not, all of the Profiled Issuers are penny stocks that are illiquid and whose securities are subject to wide variations in trading price and volume. During the Campaign the trading volume and price of the securities of each Profile Issuer will likely increase significantly. When the Campaign ends, the volume and price of the Profiled Issuer will likely decrease dramatically. As a result, investors who purchase during the Campaign and hold shares of the Profiled Issuer when the Campaign ends will likely lose most, if not, all of their investment.

Why do we publish only favorable Information?

We only publish favorable information because we are compensated to only publish favorable information.

Why don’t we publish negative information?

We don’t publish negative information because we are not paid to publish negative information. We are paid to publish only favorable information.

Is the Information complete, accurate, truthful or reliable?

The Information is a snapshot that provides only positive information about the Profiled Issuers. The Information consists of only positive content. We do not and will not publish any negative information about the Profiled Issuers; accordingly, investors should consider the Information to be one sided and not balanced, complete, accurate, truthful or reliable.

What we do not do.

We do not publish negative information about the Profiled Issuers. We do not verify or confirm any portion of the Information. We do not conduct any due diligence or research any aspect of the Information including the completeness, accuracy, truthfulness or reliability of the Information. We do not review the Profiled Issuers’ financial condition, operations, business model, management or risks involved in the Profiled Issuer’s business or an investment in a Profiled Issuer’s securities.

Its hard to argue with that disclosure, its pretty bang on the money and brutally honest.  If you want to read the whole thing here's the link:  http://www.egmfirm.com/disclaimer/

I shared that information on Stockhouse.ca, my user ID is ledrog and I've been on that site since 2001. As you might expect I was attacked by the bulls as a short, accused of using multiple IDs, and of engaging in manipulation so that I could load up "cheap".  I find that funny since it wasn't long ago that NF was trading around 2 or 3 cents, so I hardly think anything over 10 cents is "cheap".  

Full disclosure, I have no position in NF long or short and no intention of initiating one at any time in the future.  

Okay.....so the bulls say:  What of it?  Read the news, this is a great company.....gonna be huge, great business plan, yadda yadda yadda.  Yeah yeah, I've heard it all before.

These emails are aimed at the lowest common denominator in my opinion, people with more money than brains.  I'm talking about people who think "Safe Harbour" is a small town in Newfoundland. Its "Forward Looking Language" we're talking about here.  Anything that says we: expect, anticipate, plan or similar type language.  It sounds great, but these are not material statements of fact.  Plans don't always work out, expectations are often not met, things that are anticipated sometimes never come to pass.

Regular readers know I'm not big on fundamentals, especially with highly speculative stocks.  The point I keep trying to drive home is that if you want to make money with penny stocks, your best chance is with companies that are lightly traded, because the sheep haven't been called to the dinner table yet.  

The risk you take buying when things are quiet is that the herd will never show up.  That the promotion, news and hype that gets the great unwashed all excited, greedy and buying high, that it won't happen.  In my view that's still better than storming into a stock that's already climbed from 1 or 2 cents to 20 or 30 cents for gains of 1,000% or more.

I'd love to post a chart of NF, but charting sites are few and far between for CSE listed stocks. The CSE has the easiest listing standards in Canada, I liken the CSE to the U.S. OTC non-reporting Pink Sheets, sometimes called the Gray Market.

Cannabis stocks are popping up all over the place, and I fully expect to get more emails on others, especially for those listed on the CSE and Pinks.  I have taken a couple of flyers myself and if one of the companies I hold starts getting pumped and promoted in this fashion, I'm sure you can guess what I'll be doing.

Good luck