MYDX and NBEV - Admitting bad calls....

I haven't been shy about patting myself on the back here when I've written a bullish opinion on a stock that then goes on to make substantial gains.  I've had a number of successes.

The Bullish Calls

I first wrote about LAC.TO at $0.75 CDN and it is now trading for $1.06....I long ago took profits on that stock at lower prices than where its trading now, and when that happens I simply cry into the money I made.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/04/lithium-americas-cup-and-handle-forming.html

EGT.V is one I wrote about at 14 Canadian pennies.  I bailed on it after doubling my money but its still trading up around 25 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/the-lure-of-clean-energy-eguana.html

HMPR, which is now trading as XBKS after a merger is one I'm particularly happy about, and while I have taken profits by selling some shares its one I continue to like and have maintained a position in.
It was trading at a split adjusted price of $18.10 when I first wrote about it here, now its at $26.50 after pulling back from as high as $30.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/hampton-roads-bankshares-hmpr-great.html

RVX.TO is a stock I first wrote about here when it was trading around $1.30 CDN, its currently at $1.75 after getting up around $2.50 in October and is one I still continue to both like and hold, however fully ackowledging that it is extremely high risk in my view.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/resverlogix-phase-iii-clinical-trial.html

ACU.V written about at .16 cents now at .185 is one I doubled down on when it fell to 10 cents.  I took some profits when I climbed up over 20 cents, but I still am maintaining a position and still think there's much more upside potential.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/07/the-lure-of-green-energy-aurora-solar.html

In October I expressed a bullish opinion on RMHB when it was trading around .036 cents American. Now it has climbed to .092....it is another one where I'll have to cry into the money I made, bailing on it after a 50% profit.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/hemp-infused-beverages-intriguing-idea.html

KUB.V has been a monster, I wrote about it in October as well when it was 2 cents...and now its settled in around 6 cents after trading as high as 7.5 pennies CDN.  Its one I continue to hold, in fact I just added to the position I started at 2.5 cents by buying more at 6 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/an-intriguing-penny-play-kubv-ukranian.html

Not too bad at all, and I'm leaving out more recent gainers like Emblem Corp.

Of course not all my calls were long plays.  I did express bearish views at times when I thought some stocks were bubbling up on nothing more than Promotion, News and Hype.

The Bearish Calls
I wrote a few bearish opinions on ZIOP starting last May when that stock was trading in and around $7 to $8 per share, now its sitting around $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ziopharm-wall-street-sting.html

I did a couple posts on KTOV also in May when that stock was trading up around $6.60 per, now its fallen all the way to around $3.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ktov-what-just-happened.html

And then there's VUZI when it was up at $8.81 on its way to almost $10.  Now its fallen all the way back to $6.40

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/09/vuzix-time-machine-back-to-tech-bubble.html

And finally my very recent bearish thoughts on NF.CN from November when it was up around 25 Canadian pennies and on its way to being promoted to over 30 cents.  Its now trading for 11 or 12 cents and in my opinion on its way back to .02 cents eventually.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/message-board-fun-and-games-with.html

But enough of the successful calls, I didn't get them all right last year and I am sure I will get some wrong in the future.  Two opinions I expressed were particularily bad, one long idea and one short.

MYDX is a company I wrote about this past November and one I took a position out in.  When I wrote about the PPS was trading for 2.2 cents, and I bought into at .0144 as revealed in the comments. Its most recent closing price was .0021 for a drop of over 80%.  Ouch!!!  Thankfully it was a small position, and I followed my own advice in that post and only risked money I could afford to lose.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/mydx-another-way-to-play-marijuana-space.html

I will continue to hold MYDX (the symbol and company name are one and the same).  The company is forecasting profitability in the near future, I'm not going to hold my breath however.  A good recipe for going broke in my opinion is to believe the forward looking bullish outlooks on penny stocks. I've already booked some solid capital gains in 2017 and losses can come in handy at tax time, even if the dollar amount is small.

The bearish short opinion was expressed on NBEV, back when it was trading under the symbol ABRW.  I wrote about that stock in June of last year when it was trading up around $1.75 cents after already made a huge jump from as low as .20 cents in February and March.  Today its trading up around $4.20 and has been as high as $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/abrw-great-example-of-stock-promotion.html

My opinion on NBEV hasn't changed for the long term, but I have to admit I was wrong.  The ultimate arbiter in the market is price, and I thought NBEV had been pumped up near its limits in June, so I was incredibly wrong on that one as well.

When I get it right I'm not shy about sharing my success, but that means I have to take ownership of those views and opinions I get wrong too.  Some social media posters talk with extreme confidence when pumping and bashing stocks because they know sheep will follow strength, and admitting to past failures or the possibility that a call could be wrong, well that doesn't inspire confidence, and pumpers and bashers in my opinion (one that is often not humble) is that most are industry hacks.

Professional market players infest social media sites where stocks are discussed, that's opinion but for me its not up for debate.  The way I see things they are manipulators and bullies, trying to dominate the herd so as to shepherd the sheep into the stocks they're dumping, or out of the ones they want to accumulate.

I'll end this post here and wish everyone luck.  I will also once again cite those two maxims that I think are of critical importance to retail investors.  Firstly that nobody has ever gone broke from taking profits, and secondly that if you sell a stock and then see it continue climbing even higher, before buying back in cry into the money you made and think again about that first maxim.

Cheers.

Reshuffling the deck - The dangers of marrying a stock

Opportunities come up every day on the stock markets.  Right now I bet there is a 1 cent stock poised to go to a dime, a 10 cent stock primed to hit a buck and a $1 stock that will be trading for more than $10 before too long.

Of course unless you have a bottomless bag of money at your disposal, then you're going to have to sell some stocks to take advantage of opportunities that arise, and hopefully you'll be taking profits. That's something I've been doing of late with a number of the stocks that I've written about here at Avoid The Bag.  

As disclosed yesterday (Oct 24, 2016) I closed out my position in Lithium Americas (LAC.TO) for a nice capital gain.  I also decided to reduce my position in Eguana (EGT.V) by half, realizing a 100% profit on the shares I sold, having bought them at 15 cents.  Xenith Bankshares (XBKS) is another I reduced by about one third, having a cost basis of $1.60 means a return in excess of 40% on the shares I sold.  With all those capital gains I also booked a capital loss on LED Medical (LMD.V), a penny stock I thought was a good prospect to get some attention, but it didn't pan out, at least not yet.

In my younger days selling would have been harder, but I've learned some valuable lessons over the years, both from my late great Father, as well as from a most invaluable teacher called Experience.

Too often I find investors fall head over heels in love with their stocks, and all too often just one. Putting all your eggs, as well as all your money, in just one basket is not only incredibly risky, its also incredibly stupid in my opinion, but people do it all the time.  Why?  Because they've fallen in love. Its something that's happened to me before, and something I try to avoid now.  

I still like EGT and XBKS which is why I didn't sell out entirely.  I'm still holding some LMD.V as well in hopes it will start to attract the attention of investors.  The only stock I sold off completely is LAC, although I still think they have a chance to make a go of their Lithium Mine with SQM's backing.  

So what are the opportunities I saw?  One is in another stock that trades in what I'll call the "New Energy" space.  Ideal Power Inc. trades on the Nasdaq with the symbol IPWR. Beside recent developments and potential for stocks in the Energy Storage market, I love the way the chart looks.

I'll be doing a specific blog post on Ideal Power in the days to come.

Good luck to all three of my loyal blog dawgs, and I hope you're making money....not just on paper though, but with real capital gains that come from turning shares into money.

Cheers.

Musk's "Master Plan" - The Green Energy Paradigm

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has just come out with his updated "Master Plan".  If you're reading this practically invisible and pathetic little blog then you already know the details.  

Its a new world.  We're all going to be driving electric cars, have solar panels on our roofs and battery storage systems in our homes.  Okay, but is it realistic?  Are we going to do away with fossil fuels and be living on a cleaner planet in the decades to come?  

There's no way to know for sure, the master plan doesn't include the building of a time machine. With that being said, I like the chances.

Someone born in the year 1900 would have had two major forms of transportation, by foot or by horse.  For those fortunate enough to have the means to travel the world there were steam powered ships and coal fired trains.  Cars and planes were still dreams in the planning stages, but they were dreams that came true. Within fifty years cars were everywhere, suburbs sprang up and ribbons of pavement crisscrossed the landscape.  Intercontinental travellers were spared the long journeys across oceans as commercial air travel started flying people all over the world.

The new paradigm?  Clean energy stored in Lithium Ion batteries running our homes, our cars and pretty much everything else.  

When cars first came out some thought they were a fad, that the old reliable horse and buggy would never be replaced.  The same thing happened when cell phones hit the market, some people said that there would always be a need for a hard wired phone in people's homes.  

The world changes, and when the change is big its sometimes called a paradigm shift...that's what Mr. Musk is suggesting.  I think he's right.  

Will companies like Tesla combined with Solar City (assuming the merger goes through) lead the charge?  Maybe, maybe not.  There were a lot of car makers that were big at the start, and many of them were absorbed or disappeared.  Does anyone remember the Packard?  Same thing with cell phones, companies like Nokia and Motorola were the early leaders, long before Apple and Samsung.

Investors hoping to cash in on the changing landscape have a multitude of choices.  Aside from the aforementioned Telsa (TSLA) and Solar City (SCTY) there are lithium miners, manufacturers of battery storage systems and their associated components, solar panels and wind turbines....and much more.

I've place a few bets, these aren't recommendations, there are plenty of publicly traded companies to choose from.  I've put money into Lithium Mining with Lithium Americas (LAC on the Canadian TSX) and into battery storage and the inverters needed to integrate them into power grids with Eguana Tech (EGT on the Canadian TSX Venture) and a company that works in the solar panel space called Aurora Solar Tech (ACU also on the TSX Venture).  For those seeking less risk the Global X Lithium ETF might be an option.

In my opinion the Green Energy sector is just starting to grab investor attention, and I don't think the party will be ending any time soon.  And with Mr. Musk's ability to grab the spotlight, this updated master plan will be getting lots of play and chatter over the coming news cycle.