MYDX and NBEV - Admitting bad calls....

I haven't been shy about patting myself on the back here when I've written a bullish opinion on a stock that then goes on to make substantial gains.  I've had a number of successes.

The Bullish Calls

I first wrote about LAC.TO at $0.75 CDN and it is now trading for $1.06....I long ago took profits on that stock at lower prices than where its trading now, and when that happens I simply cry into the money I made.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/04/lithium-americas-cup-and-handle-forming.html

EGT.V is one I wrote about at 14 Canadian pennies.  I bailed on it after doubling my money but its still trading up around 25 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/the-lure-of-clean-energy-eguana.html

HMPR, which is now trading as XBKS after a merger is one I'm particularly happy about, and while I have taken profits by selling some shares its one I continue to like and have maintained a position in.
It was trading at a split adjusted price of $18.10 when I first wrote about it here, now its at $26.50 after pulling back from as high as $30.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/hampton-roads-bankshares-hmpr-great.html

RVX.TO is a stock I first wrote about here when it was trading around $1.30 CDN, its currently at $1.75 after getting up around $2.50 in October and is one I still continue to both like and hold, however fully ackowledging that it is extremely high risk in my view.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/resverlogix-phase-iii-clinical-trial.html

ACU.V written about at .16 cents now at .185 is one I doubled down on when it fell to 10 cents.  I took some profits when I climbed up over 20 cents, but I still am maintaining a position and still think there's much more upside potential.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/07/the-lure-of-green-energy-aurora-solar.html

In October I expressed a bullish opinion on RMHB when it was trading around .036 cents American. Now it has climbed to .092....it is another one where I'll have to cry into the money I made, bailing on it after a 50% profit.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/hemp-infused-beverages-intriguing-idea.html

KUB.V has been a monster, I wrote about it in October as well when it was 2 cents...and now its settled in around 6 cents after trading as high as 7.5 pennies CDN.  Its one I continue to hold, in fact I just added to the position I started at 2.5 cents by buying more at 6 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/an-intriguing-penny-play-kubv-ukranian.html

Not too bad at all, and I'm leaving out more recent gainers like Emblem Corp.

Of course not all my calls were long plays.  I did express bearish views at times when I thought some stocks were bubbling up on nothing more than Promotion, News and Hype.

The Bearish Calls
I wrote a few bearish opinions on ZIOP starting last May when that stock was trading in and around $7 to $8 per share, now its sitting around $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ziopharm-wall-street-sting.html

I did a couple posts on KTOV also in May when that stock was trading up around $6.60 per, now its fallen all the way to around $3.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ktov-what-just-happened.html

And then there's VUZI when it was up at $8.81 on its way to almost $10.  Now its fallen all the way back to $6.40

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/09/vuzix-time-machine-back-to-tech-bubble.html

And finally my very recent bearish thoughts on NF.CN from November when it was up around 25 Canadian pennies and on its way to being promoted to over 30 cents.  Its now trading for 11 or 12 cents and in my opinion on its way back to .02 cents eventually.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/message-board-fun-and-games-with.html

But enough of the successful calls, I didn't get them all right last year and I am sure I will get some wrong in the future.  Two opinions I expressed were particularily bad, one long idea and one short.

MYDX is a company I wrote about this past November and one I took a position out in.  When I wrote about the PPS was trading for 2.2 cents, and I bought into at .0144 as revealed in the comments. Its most recent closing price was .0021 for a drop of over 80%.  Ouch!!!  Thankfully it was a small position, and I followed my own advice in that post and only risked money I could afford to lose.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/mydx-another-way-to-play-marijuana-space.html

I will continue to hold MYDX (the symbol and company name are one and the same).  The company is forecasting profitability in the near future, I'm not going to hold my breath however.  A good recipe for going broke in my opinion is to believe the forward looking bullish outlooks on penny stocks. I've already booked some solid capital gains in 2017 and losses can come in handy at tax time, even if the dollar amount is small.

The bearish short opinion was expressed on NBEV, back when it was trading under the symbol ABRW.  I wrote about that stock in June of last year when it was trading up around $1.75 cents after already made a huge jump from as low as .20 cents in February and March.  Today its trading up around $4.20 and has been as high as $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/abrw-great-example-of-stock-promotion.html

My opinion on NBEV hasn't changed for the long term, but I have to admit I was wrong.  The ultimate arbiter in the market is price, and I thought NBEV had been pumped up near its limits in June, so I was incredibly wrong on that one as well.

When I get it right I'm not shy about sharing my success, but that means I have to take ownership of those views and opinions I get wrong too.  Some social media posters talk with extreme confidence when pumping and bashing stocks because they know sheep will follow strength, and admitting to past failures or the possibility that a call could be wrong, well that doesn't inspire confidence, and pumpers and bashers in my opinion (one that is often not humble) is that most are industry hacks.

Professional market players infest social media sites where stocks are discussed, that's opinion but for me its not up for debate.  The way I see things they are manipulators and bullies, trying to dominate the herd so as to shepherd the sheep into the stocks they're dumping, or out of the ones they want to accumulate.

I'll end this post here and wish everyone luck.  I will also once again cite those two maxims that I think are of critical importance to retail investors.  Firstly that nobody has ever gone broke from taking profits, and secondly that if you sell a stock and then see it continue climbing even higher, before buying back in cry into the money you made and think again about that first maxim.

Cheers.

MyDx - Another way to play the marijuana space

This blog is starting to generate some emails, nothing huge, one or two a week.  Last Wednesday Zane wrote and asked me if I'd consider looking into a company called MyDx Inc that trades OTCQB under the appropriate symbol MYDX.OB.  They have created a hand held analyzer that detects chemicals in, you guessed it, Mary Jane. as well as food, water and even air.  It can work in tandem with a smart phone and a downloadable free application.  

I've already written about another interesting Cannabis play in Rocky Mountain High Brands (RMHB.OB) and their Hemp Infused energy drinks, so I figured.....what the hay.  Or perhaps:  "What the hemp" might be a better way of putting it.

Cannabis, Hemp, Marijuana, call it what you want, the sector is getting a lot of...uhm, Buzz.  With California voting in favour of legislation and Canada poised to do the same at the federal level this spring it stands to reason that public companies in this space are going to be attracting a lot of attention.

I'm not going to go in depth on the fundamentals here, regular readers already know my opinion.  I consider all fundamental data to be at least weeks and often times months old. Hence in my view its already "baked" into the share price.  Okay okay, I'll slow down on the Wacky Tabacky quips....they're hard to resist.

MYDX closed this past Friday at .022 cents American, trading on the OTCQB as opposed to the non reporting Pink Sheets which I will not touch.  As of  October 12th of this year there were 150.5 million shares outstanding, giving the company a Market Cap of about $3.3 million.  

There is some promotion going on, which as I've often pointed out is to be expected with development stage companies.  They're profiled at CFN Media Group, a website that specializes in promoting the overall Cannabis space.

http://www.cannabisfn.com/mdc/mydx-inc/

They haven't been around for a long time, with the chart showing trading starting in April of 2015 in the $2 to $3 range.  That's quite a drop, all the way down to just a couple of pennies.  You can see for yourself here:

Two things pop out.  One obviously is the big drop in the PPS, and the second is the explosion of volume starting in September and carrying through to the present.  

According to news released by the company, their application was the number one downloaded free App in IOS App Store in the medical category:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mydx-one-app-rockets-top-141100654.html

There's another reason however why I think volume has exploded, and that reason is short selling. As might be expected with a stock trading for less than one single nickel, short interest has been very low....until recently that is.  Up until September the reported numbers of shares borrowed and sold into the market was only a few thousand, forty odd thousand as recently as July.

And then it shot up to almost 200K at the end of August and then to a high of over 2 million as recently as September 30th.  The most recent update has short interest just shy of 1 million current up to Oct. 15th.  So short interest shot up in tandem with the explosion in trading volumes in other words.

That suggests to me that MYDX is now fully "in play".  In my opinion this stock has attracted the attention of the real players, and as such I expect there to be a lot of volatility.  High frequency traders scalping large quantities for small % gains, retail investors buying and holding, penny flipping types riding momentum on swing trades.  And given the minuscule market cap, it strikes me that there is a lot of upside potential here.  

Now full disclosure.  As I write this I have no position in MYDX whatsoever, and as it says at the very bottom of this blog, I have not and will not ever accept payment in any form to write about any stock. With that being said I may very well open up a position in this company, perhaps within the next 48 hours.  

Do note that penny stocks are incredibly high risk investment vehicles.  It is quite possible that one may lose some or all of their investment when buying OTC stocks, so please take special care here. My regular readers know my favourite saying: "Nobody ever went broke by taking profits".  In my view stocks like MYDX are only suitable for risk capital, that is to say money that one can afford to lose.  

Please do your own DD and research and examine your own objectives, be they long term, short term or somewhere in between.  And good luck.