Contrarians might want to Consider Cub Energy (KUB.V)

Given that Cub Energy trades with the symbol KUB on Canada's Venture exchange (TPNEF on the OTCBB in the US) I thought of spelling words starting with the letter C with a K instead.  But then I'd be suggesting that Kontrarians Konsider Kub....three Ks in a row is fine for a pitcher in a baseball game, but otherwise I find it disgusting.  I'm not blowing any dog whistles for KKK types with this blog.  

Anyway, as I so often do I'm digressing.

Contrarian investing/trading, for me it means seeking out those companies that are either out of favour, or that are below the radar.  With Cub Energy I think there's an element of both involved.  Because their operations are in the geopolitically sensitive country of Ukraine, that for me justifies the company being out of favour.  And given the pathetically low volume, KUB.V is obviously far below the radar screens of most investors and traders.

In the past 3 months KUB.V has seen 0 shares trading hands on 9 different days by my count, and not one day of 1 million or more. Most days over the past 3 months have seen less than 100K trading, which for a stock at this level makes the dollar value basically inconsequential.  

A winning strategy I've stumbled on is to buy when volume is incredibly light and then to sell when volume is incredibly high.  Its not 100% full proof though, nothing is.  Sometimes that waited for surge in volume never comes, and on occasion I have lost patience and given up only to see a stock I once held take off.  This isn't the first time I'm writing about KUB.V of course, but the surge in volume I'm waiting and hoping for hasn't materialized yet.  Here's the first post I did on KUB.V in October of last year:

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/an-intriguing-penny-play-kubv-ukranian.html

I fully realize that taking out a position in KUB is a pretty boring proposition.  It doesn't have the excitement of penny stocks in the Cannabis space for example.  With MJ penny stocks you often have chop shops pumping out emails to anyone with a brokerage account and a pulse.  You're not going to see social media types proclaiming KUB.V a "no brainer" investment like you do with so many companies that are bleeding cash and printing shares to survive and meet payroll so that Execs can keep pulling in hundreds of thousands while an accumulated deficit grows bigger and bigger.  

Seriously, I think many Penny Stock company CEOs and Execs should be in government, they would fit right in.  But again...I'm digressing.  Besides, CUB Energy is earnings positive as of their most recent quarterly filing, so they don't need to play that game it would seem.  

Its not often you're going to find a stock trading for less than a single Canadian nickel with a Book Value three times higher than the current PPS.  Typically companies trade above their book value, not below it.  

I will leave readers to reach their own conclusions based on research and due diligence, and will close by saying I think this one is overdue for some attention....but in my opinion the stock has been under accumulation and smart money players like to buy low BEFORE the herd shows up.

Blessings and good luck, comments welcome.

MYDX and NBEV - Admitting bad calls....

I haven't been shy about patting myself on the back here when I've written a bullish opinion on a stock that then goes on to make substantial gains.  I've had a number of successes.

The Bullish Calls

I first wrote about LAC.TO at $0.75 CDN and it is now trading for $1.06....I long ago took profits on that stock at lower prices than where its trading now, and when that happens I simply cry into the money I made.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/04/lithium-americas-cup-and-handle-forming.html

EGT.V is one I wrote about at 14 Canadian pennies.  I bailed on it after doubling my money but its still trading up around 25 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/the-lure-of-clean-energy-eguana.html

HMPR, which is now trading as XBKS after a merger is one I'm particularly happy about, and while I have taken profits by selling some shares its one I continue to like and have maintained a position in.
It was trading at a split adjusted price of $18.10 when I first wrote about it here, now its at $26.50 after pulling back from as high as $30.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/hampton-roads-bankshares-hmpr-great.html

RVX.TO is a stock I first wrote about here when it was trading around $1.30 CDN, its currently at $1.75 after getting up around $2.50 in October and is one I still continue to both like and hold, however fully ackowledging that it is extremely high risk in my view.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/resverlogix-phase-iii-clinical-trial.html

ACU.V written about at .16 cents now at .185 is one I doubled down on when it fell to 10 cents.  I took some profits when I climbed up over 20 cents, but I still am maintaining a position and still think there's much more upside potential.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/07/the-lure-of-green-energy-aurora-solar.html

In October I expressed a bullish opinion on RMHB when it was trading around .036 cents American. Now it has climbed to .092....it is another one where I'll have to cry into the money I made, bailing on it after a 50% profit.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/hemp-infused-beverages-intriguing-idea.html

KUB.V has been a monster, I wrote about it in October as well when it was 2 cents...and now its settled in around 6 cents after trading as high as 7.5 pennies CDN.  Its one I continue to hold, in fact I just added to the position I started at 2.5 cents by buying more at 6 cents.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/10/an-intriguing-penny-play-kubv-ukranian.html

Not too bad at all, and I'm leaving out more recent gainers like Emblem Corp.

Of course not all my calls were long plays.  I did express bearish views at times when I thought some stocks were bubbling up on nothing more than Promotion, News and Hype.

The Bearish Calls
I wrote a few bearish opinions on ZIOP starting last May when that stock was trading in and around $7 to $8 per share, now its sitting around $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ziopharm-wall-street-sting.html

I did a couple posts on KTOV also in May when that stock was trading up around $6.60 per, now its fallen all the way to around $3.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/05/ktov-what-just-happened.html

And then there's VUZI when it was up at $8.81 on its way to almost $10.  Now its fallen all the way back to $6.40

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/09/vuzix-time-machine-back-to-tech-bubble.html

And finally my very recent bearish thoughts on NF.CN from November when it was up around 25 Canadian pennies and on its way to being promoted to over 30 cents.  Its now trading for 11 or 12 cents and in my opinion on its way back to .02 cents eventually.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/message-board-fun-and-games-with.html

But enough of the successful calls, I didn't get them all right last year and I am sure I will get some wrong in the future.  Two opinions I expressed were particularily bad, one long idea and one short.

MYDX is a company I wrote about this past November and one I took a position out in.  When I wrote about the PPS was trading for 2.2 cents, and I bought into at .0144 as revealed in the comments. Its most recent closing price was .0021 for a drop of over 80%.  Ouch!!!  Thankfully it was a small position, and I followed my own advice in that post and only risked money I could afford to lose.

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/11/mydx-another-way-to-play-marijuana-space.html

I will continue to hold MYDX (the symbol and company name are one and the same).  The company is forecasting profitability in the near future, I'm not going to hold my breath however.  A good recipe for going broke in my opinion is to believe the forward looking bullish outlooks on penny stocks. I've already booked some solid capital gains in 2017 and losses can come in handy at tax time, even if the dollar amount is small.

The bearish short opinion was expressed on NBEV, back when it was trading under the symbol ABRW.  I wrote about that stock in June of last year when it was trading up around $1.75 cents after already made a huge jump from as low as .20 cents in February and March.  Today its trading up around $4.20 and has been as high as $5.50

http://www.avoidthebag.com/2016/06/abrw-great-example-of-stock-promotion.html

My opinion on NBEV hasn't changed for the long term, but I have to admit I was wrong.  The ultimate arbiter in the market is price, and I thought NBEV had been pumped up near its limits in June, so I was incredibly wrong on that one as well.

When I get it right I'm not shy about sharing my success, but that means I have to take ownership of those views and opinions I get wrong too.  Some social media posters talk with extreme confidence when pumping and bashing stocks because they know sheep will follow strength, and admitting to past failures or the possibility that a call could be wrong, well that doesn't inspire confidence, and pumpers and bashers in my opinion (one that is often not humble) is that most are industry hacks.

Professional market players infest social media sites where stocks are discussed, that's opinion but for me its not up for debate.  The way I see things they are manipulators and bullies, trying to dominate the herd so as to shepherd the sheep into the stocks they're dumping, or out of the ones they want to accumulate.

I'll end this post here and wish everyone luck.  I will also once again cite those two maxims that I think are of critical importance to retail investors.  Firstly that nobody has ever gone broke from taking profits, and secondly that if you sell a stock and then see it continue climbing even higher, before buying back in cry into the money you made and think again about that first maxim.

Cheers.

KUB.V has its highest close in over 2 years

I first wrote about Cub Energy (KUB.V or TPNEF) back on October 31st 2016 when the price was sitting at a whopping 2 cents.

An intriguing penny play - KUB.V - Ukranian Oil and Gas

I had established a position in KUB.V at 2.5 cents (I almost never get the bottom) so I'm obviously very happy.  If I were to sell for the current closing price of 7.5 cents that would represent a tripling of my investment which isn't bad for just over three months.  

I know I post continually how nobody ever goes broke by taking profits, however I'm planning on holding because I genuinely believe there is potential for significantly higher prices in the weeks and months to come.  If you've followed my posts on RMHB here you'll see that I wasn't shy about taking a 50% profit on that play, but I believe KUB.V is different.  (RMHB LINK - check the comments)

Here is a 3 month chart that shows how KUB.V has performed since I first wrote about it back at the end of October:

Taking that chart in isolation, selling now might seem like a wise course of action.  But taking a longer view I see potential for substantially higher prices.  Of course please take note that as a current shareholder, my thoughts and opinions are also INCREDIBLY skewed....there is something called "confirmation bias" and I can be as prone to it as anyone.  

One quick note on the 3 month chart and taking note of stochastics (the indicator at the very top), they show KUB being in an overbought position, so a near term pullback would not shock me.

Its when looking at the 4 year chart, that's where I see the potential for much higher prices....at least in the area of 20 to 25 cents....roughly three times where they are now and about 10 times higher from where I initiated my position.

You have to go back to 2013 and early 2014 to find KUB trading up around that 20 to 25 cent area. So what makes me think it can get back there?

Often with penny stocks you will see the PPS fall in tandem with massive dilution, I've seen penny stocks with 1+ billion shares issued.  KUB.V on the other hand had 311.7 million shares issued at the end of 2013, and now about four years later there are 312 million shares listed as issued as per stockwatch.  

You can verify those numbers by checking the company's filings on SEDAR and I encourage anyone considering an investment in KUB to do so.  

So obviously the drop in value from 20+ cents to about 2 pennies isn't attributable to the company printing shares and dumping them into the market.  What was it?  Those who don't keep up on world politics might have missed the situation which cropped up in 2014 between Russia and Ukraine over a little parcel of land called the Crimean Peninsula.  

Here's a Wikipedia article on it:  Russian military intervention in Ukraine (2014 - present)

Looking at the above 4 year chart its hard not to draw a cause and effect relationship between this conflict and KUB.V 's plummeting share price.

Of course all that is in the past, and KUB has already climbed well off those 2 cent lows.  So why do I think it can keep climbing back to the valuation it had before the Russian intervention.

Back in November the company released its third quarter financial and operational results, Included in those numbers was the fact that the company's working capital and cash position were the best they had been in over two years.  Also noted was the reduction in royalty rates for natural gas in Ukraine from 55% to 29%. 

Here's a link to the PR or check the filings on SEDAR:  

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cub-energy-inc-announces-q3-210507800.html

Frequent readers of this miserable and pathetic little blog know that I like to keep an eye out for what I consider to be the unholy trinity of the market game.  In order those three things are Promotion, News and Hype.  With Cub Energy I have found zero promotion going on, if anyone knows of any please leave a comment because I have come up completely dry.

In terms of News there isn't much either.  Aside from the required quarterly and annual results or other material information news is pretty scant.  Cub Energy doesn't look like one of those companies that goes to investor roadshows, issuing PRs every other day about any little tidbit they think might drive interest to the stock.   

Their most recent PR was on Dec. 28th of 2016 announcing a 20 year production license and increased acreage: 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cub-energy-inc-announces-20-141500227.html

Back when I first wrote about KUB in October of last year I offered up the opinion that my take on the chart was that it showed signs of accumulation.  The reason I thought, and the reason I still think, KUB was undergoing accumulation is because I believe I'm not the only one who sees the PPS returning to the levels it was at back in 2013, and possibly even higher.

Please note, while I am very bullish there are still risks.  The political situation could deteriorate again, if it does I would expect KUB.V to drop in value.  Penny stocks are incredibly risky and not suitable for everyone.  I would never suggest investing a single dime in KUB or any other penny stock unless you can afford to lose some, and possibly even all of your investment.  

Comments are always welcomed, but they are moderated and will not be published if they contain profanity.  And no spam allowed either, if you want to promote your pills to increase the size of the male organ, then do it somewhere else.  At my age and with three kids that's not a concern, you'd have to go back to the 1970s to get me interested in anything like penis enlargement.  

Short Interest update on (RVX.TO) (ACU.V) (KUB.V) And other thoughts

I have written often about the reasons I view short interest as an important part of my research. Short interest is of course fundamental data, but rather than being weeks or months old, with the Canadian listed stocks I hold I am able to get updates twice a month, and when the new numbers come out its only 3 days old.  

I've shared these views before, but I believe they bear repeating.

In my younger days I viewed bears as an enemy to be defeated, I dreamed of short players being forced to cover off large positions resulting in a squeeze play that would send a stock sky rocketing. I long ago consigned that view to the trash bin.  My older and wiser self knows that it is never wise to underestimate an opponent, that holds true on the battlefield, in a sporting arena and with the public equity markets.

Short selling comports huge risk.  When going long the amount that can be lost is fixed, if you buy 10,000 shares of a stock trading for $1 the most you can lose is $10,000 because a stock cannot drop below $0.00.  

But go short 10,000 shares on a stock trading for $1.00 and the potential for losses is theoretically limitless.  Those 10,000 shares borrowed and sold into the market at $1.00 have to be bought back on the cover, unless the PPS goes to $0.00 in which case the short seller books $10,000 in profits less fees.  

But if the stock climbs, then the potential for losses climbs.  At $2.00 a short seller is down $10,000 at $3 he's down $20,000....and keep adding $10,000 for each dollar the PPS climbs.  And if  the stock keeps climbing, then the short seller must keep putting money into his margin account to protect his short position.  

If the margin requirements are not met then he can be forced to cover.  Can you imagine being short 10,000 shares at $1 on a stock that goes to $10?  The short seller could be forced to buy back his short position for $100,000 when the short sale only netted $10,000.

It is because of this kind of risk that short sellers like Hedge Funds are notorious for going full tilt on their research and due diligence, with reports of some even combing through the trash of public companies to get the inside scoop.  And it is because of this that I now stay away from investing in companies that have a significant number of shares shorted, say 10% of the outstanding or more.

Of course there are a couple other reasons for going short.  One is fairly benign.  Market Maker broker dealers (MMs for short) that are quoting a bid and ask have an essential function in the market, they provide liquidity.  A lot of stocks out there are thinly traded, but because of MMs those looking to buy can always find a seller, and those looking to sell can always find a buyer.  Because of this essential function MMs can end up short, not because they're bearish on a company but simply because they got hit with buy side interest when no sellers were available.

The other reason is less benign, its sometimes referred to as shaking the tree.  A major player can work a stock up and down by using short selling when a stock hits the top of his buying range.  This can increase volatility and cause some longs to bail out, allowing the big player to accumulate a large position, covering off his short sales and then adding to a position.  In this way short selling can actually be seen as a positive.

Alright, that's enough preamble.  Now onto the three stocks mentioned in the subject line:  RVX, ACU and CUB all traded in Canada.  I have written about all three before here at ATB, and both RVX and KUB are up significantly since I first profiled them here, while ACU is down a couple of cents. 

Please note that I have long positions in all three of these stocks so my opinions are biased and should be viewed in that light.  

Resverlogix: RVX.TO or RVXCF OTCBB

Up to November 30th 2016 shares shorted is listed at 107,542 which represents 0.10% of the 105 odd millions shares issued.  You would have to go all the way back to July of 2015 to find a higher number.  As recently as May of this year the number was just 1,500 and it has been climbing almost non stop ever since, but only incrementally, one tenth of one percent of the outstanding is hardly a massive number.

With RVX I consider it very possible that short selling is being used as a means to "shake the tree", to push the PPS around in other words in an effort by smart money players to accumulate on a long position.  

The company just put out news today (Monday December 5th, 2016) announcing a second positive recommendation from the Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) for the continuation of the company's Phase III trial of Apabetalone called BETonMACE.  The first patients were dosed over a year ago now and the DSMB noted no safety or efficacy concerns and recommended the trial continue without modifications.  

BETonMACE is attempting to show that Apabetalone will reduce the incidence of Major Adverse Cardiac Events (MACE) in patients suffering from Diabetes Mellitus, which is a fancy way of saying full blown insulin dependent Diabetes.  

Here's a link to that news:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/resverlogix-announces-second-positive-recommendation-171300385.html

Aurora Solar Technologies: ACU.V or AACTF OTCBB

Short interest for ACU is so low it might as well be 0, although the actual number is 2,000 current up to November 30th 2016.  That's only 0.01% or one one hundredth of one percent of the roughly 39.6 million issued shares.

Trading in this stock has really thinned out, and there hasn't been any news of any consequence since October when the company announced a repeat order from one of their customers.  

Cub Energy: KUB.V or TPNEF OTCBB

KUB on the other hand does have some short selling going on, like RVX not a huge amount by any stretch, but enough to be noteworthy in my opinion.  Up to November 30th 2016 the number comes in at 146,400 which is 0.05% of the roughly 312 million issued.  

Again, its not a lot, and as with RVX I consider it very possible that short selling is being used as a means to shake that proverbial tree in an effort by some smart money players to accumulate.  Back in October the number climbed over 200,000 but then came down in subsequent periods to just 23,000 and then 16,000 before this most recent update took it back up to 146,000.

Cub Energy has basically no news, the last PR of any note was on November 16th when the company released its 3rd quarter numbers.  And unlike RVX and ACU volumes for KUB are much more robust, it has traded at least 1 million shares per day over the past 4 sessions and traded over 14 million shares on November 17th, the day after they released their quarterly results.  November 17th saw the PPS close at 3 cents, the most recent close was 5 cents and that is just .005 from the 52 week high.

Summary

Taking everything into account I think RVX presents the biggest possible upside if they succeed with their Ph III trial, but it could be a long wait and there is a big risk that their trial could ultimately fail.

ACU appears to be a stock that is drifting right now.  Its a stock that has seen significant volumes taking place in quick bursts every two to three months, the last one being in late October.  If the pattern holds it would be January or February before the next one.  However I have to wonder if the election of Donald Trump hasn't taken some of the wind out of the sails in the New Energy space.

KUB I believe presents the best prospects in the very near term, that is based on the chart, on the fact there is precious little news, no hype and zero promotion that I can find.  Should those elements come into play I think there's a great narrative here given that Cub Energy is focused on the Natural Gas market in Ukraine, and with the conflict in that region subsiding I very much like the chances of KUB.V returning to the levels it was trading at back in 2013, that is in the 20 to 30 cent area.

Comments are always welcome, just keep the language polite.  

Cub Energy (KUB.V - TNPEF) Approaching a 52 week high

I first wrote about Cub Energy a little over a month ago on October 31st, Halloween as it turns out.   And that seems rather fitting because this obscure little Canadian listed penny stock has been quite the monster over the past month.  Near the end of that post I said I might revisit KUB  if the PPS took off.  

Well given that the PPS has nearly doubled I think I've earned a self congratulatory pat on the back. If you want to read that original post here it is:  

"An intriguing penny play - KUB.V - Ukrainian Oil and Gas".  

As it says in the subject line KUB is now approaching its 52 week high.  This past Friday the stock touched 5 cents before closing at 4.5 pennies.  If it hits 5.5 cents it will have reached that 52 week high, and obviously anything above 5.5 will represent a new high.  Here's the 1 year chart. 

That's a pretty spectacular jump in a short period of time.  Up until mid November shares were available on the ask at 2.5 cents, and anyone lucky enough to get filled at the bid was buying at 2 cents.  This past Friday the bid was at both .04 and .045 cents....offering a chance at gains in the neighbourhood of 80 to 100%.  

There's a common saying with penny stocks, "greed kills", so I will not begrudge anyone for taking their profits and running.  As I write in practically every other blog posting, nobody ever went broke taking profits.  

I will however admit to being greedy here and holding on tight.  I am currently a shareholder, that is to say I do eat my own cooking.  But that also means my opinions are biased so please view them in that light.  I will of course explain the reasons why I continue to be bullish on KUB.  

The biggest reason is volume, or rather a lack of volume.  Since KUB began its climb off that 2 cent low on November 16th there has only been one day with volume of over 2.5 million.  That day was November 17th, the first day KUB moved off that 2 cent base, when roughly 15 million shares traded hands.  However 15 million isn't a huge number when you consider the amount of money it represents with a stock trading for a couple pennies.  

15 million shares trading at 2.5 cents equals $375,000 CDN, which is not insignificant, but we're not talking millions of dollars either.  And as I mentioned, since that day to present volumes have not once crested 2.5 million.  Even two and a half million is only around $100,000 CDN at 4 or 4.5 cents.

So what has caused KUB.V to lift off that base of .02 to .025 cents and move into the .04 to .05 cent range?  I think the reason is quite obvious, its due to the release of their Operational and Financial Results for the 3rd Quarter which came out on November 16th, one day before the volume surged.  

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cub-energy-inc-announces-q3-210507800.html

The release spoke of an improving cash position and the decrease of royalty rates for natural gas in Ukraine.  That news saw a jump in both PPS and volume, but most importantly, since that time the PPS has not returned to that base level of 2 to 2.5 cents.

Regular readers know that I keep an eye out for what I consider to be the "Unholy Trinity" of the markets: Promotion, News and Hype.  Cub Energy has not issued one PR since their quarterly update and you'd have to go back to August to find one previous to that.  That's a far cry from the typical penny stock news machines where at least one PR per week is the norm.

In terms of promotion I have found zero, nada, nothing, zilch.  

I have commented often that some promotion with penny stocks is almost to be expected.  However the only item I am able to find which even has a hint of promotion to it is a Streetwise.com report from back in April of this year with some guy named Chen Lin explaining his reasons for being bullish on KUB.V

https://www.streetwisereports.com/pub/co/5223

There is precious little news, no recent promotion that I can find, and certainly no hype.  However that isn't surprising given that KUB is still trading between .04 and .05 Canadian cents.  Yes that is a big jump in percentage terms when measured against recent lows, but the Market Capitalization here is still not even $12 million in USD.  That's a far cry from 2013 when both the MC and share price were 400 to 500% higher than they are currently, with the number of outstanding shares roughly the same as it is now.

Should KUB's share price return to that 20 cent level, I will be keeping a keen eye out for promotion and hype.  Its not unusual to see a stock being pumped and promoted after it gains 1,000% or more off its lows.  If the PPS does make those kind of gains I will be hopeful that the increase can be sustained, but I will not be naive if I sense the dinner bell ringing calling the herd to the trough.

2 cents to 22 would represent a 1,000% jump off the low. 

Again, I have a long position in this stock so view my opinions and commentary in that light.  Verify everything I have written and realize that an investment in a penny stock comports significant risks. My tolerance for risk and investment objectives may differ from your own.  An investment in KUB could result in the loss of some or all of the money put in play.

Good luck.

An intriguing penny play - KUB.V - Ukranian Oil and Gas (TPNEF OTC)

All three of my regular readers know I'm not big on fundamentals, and that I like to run away from the herd.  Penny stocks are the ultimate in risk/reward plays, suitable only for risk capital with me. That means its money that I can afford to lose.

Of course I still like to win, so I don't just toss money at any old stock just because its trading for a few (or in this case just a couple of) pennies.

A friend of mine suggested I take a look at a few stocks he had on the radar, and after reviewing the metrics I like to look at and consulting the charts it didn't take me long to form a bullish opinion on one of his selections, Cub Energy Inc.  I opened a long position last week, so obviously the opinions I am offering up are biased and should be viewed in that light.

KUB.V has been publicly traded since 2010 and its been as high as 80+ cents CDN back in late 2010 and early in 2011.  As recently as early 2014 it was still trading over 20 cents a share.  Why the big drop?  For those living under a rock you might have heard about a little political unrest with a small parcel of land called the Crimean Peninsula, I think that likely had a lot to do with it.   

Okay okay....so what?

I mean just because it used to be an 80 cent or a 20 cent stock....in the here and now its trading around 2 little Canadian centavos.  What in the Sam Hill (where the hell did that expression come from) makes me think that it has a chance to go back anywhere near those levels?

If you read the posting before this one you will see that I view the markets as being incredibly manipulated, its hardly an uncommon opinion.  And the reason I think KUB.V has the potential to go higher is that I believe its been undergoing accumulation.  In fact I think its been under accumulation since early in 2015.

That's going on two years of course, which is a pretty long time.  Why so long?  Well, with about 311.7 million shares outstanding, if there are smart money players who've been loading up, it takes time.  

Here's the chart.

What sticks out to these old eyes is firstly that big volume spike in early 2015.  I see that as smart money players potentially, (and inadvertently) waving a flag announcing the start of an accumulation phase.

What's important to see in the wake of that big volume surge is whether the stock finds support, which obviously it did around the 2 cent level.  It didn't just find support however, it actually climbed as buyers pushed the PPS up around 5 cents for a time in the summer of 2016 before the PPS fell back to the 2 cent area.

The next thing that sticks out is that second  volume surge in July/August of this year.  I see that as another potential flag signalling that the accumulation phase is almost over and that KUB may be primed to be head back to loftier levels.

Back to 20 cents certainly seems possible to me, and perhaps even all the way back to the 80 cent range.  Only time will tell if I'm right, and if I am right then how high KUB might go.

There are other aspects that go into my analysis of course.  I also look at share count, wanting to know if the company was printing shares and dumping them into the public market.  I already made mention that the number of issued shares is 311.7 million.  Well its been at that level since June of 2013, over three years ago.  Whatever the company has been doing to survive with a 2 cent share price from 2015 forward, they haven't been dumping shares on retail investors.

The other important metric for me is short selling because it gets right to the mechanics of the market, something far more important than fundamentals in my opinion.  You might think there would be no point in shorting a penny stock trading for less than a single dime, but regardless KUB has had its share of short sales over the years.  

Back in February of 2015, at the time of that first large volume spike....short sales went from 0 to 78,000.  And short interest now sits at over 200,000 current up to October 15th 2016.  The only logical reason to short a 2 cent stock in my opinion is to manipulate the PPS.  And it is further my opinion that the most logical reason to do that is to encourage selling and discourage buying.  Some refer to is as "shaking the tree".  

Who would want to encourage selling and discourage buying with a 2 cent stock trading near historical lows?  Perhaps its those looking to accumulate because they know, (and perhaps they have the tools available to effect it) that the PPS will be climbing.  

Fundamentals don't mean much to me, but I know others rely on them heavily.  What could change with Cub Energy's fundamental picture that might entice other investors to pay substantially more in the months and maybe even years ahead?  The calming situation in the Ukraine certainly helps, and a rising price for commodities like Natural Gas would do the trick I believe.  

For those sufficiently intrigued to do further research I will invite you to read this recent article from Bloomberg:  Ukraine Starts Winter With Half-Empty Natural Gas Stores

That's enough for now, if KUB does take off though I'll probably do another post to pat myself on the back, I am something of an attention whore after all :-)  

Do note that for those wanting to buy on the U.S. side the stock trades OTC with the symbol TPNEF..

Good luck